Unknown extent of spread a ‘nightmare’

New Zealand could face a ‘‘messy’’ future in detecting and managing long Covid in people, given the full extent of infections is unknown.

Last week, Aotearoa recorded a million confirmed Covid-19 cases. However, modelling suggests the true number of infections could be 2-4 times higher. The World Health Organisation estimates 10-20% of people with Covid-19 experience mid-and long-term effects. If that’s the case, up to 200,000 Kiwis could be affected by long Covid. But if we’re counting infections we don’t know about, more than three-quarters of a million people may be impacted.

Aotearoa’s long Covid mass is going to come from Omicron, University of Auckland cellular immunologist and leading long Covid researcher, Dr Anna Brooks, says. But how we navigate this, taking into account that the number of infections is likely a magnitude higher than reported, is going to be a ‘‘nightmare’’ given medical management of post-viral illnesses has been largely ‘‘neglected’’ historically.

Data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics shows that among triple-vaccinated adults, self-reported long Covid from Omicron BA.2 (making up most of Aotearoa’s Omicron wave) hovers at about one in 10 people (9.3%). Among double-vaccinated adults with Delta, this rose to 15.9%.

Even if just 1% of people infected develop long Covid, ‘‘that’s a lot of people,’’ Brooks says.

Brooks said if a person is experiencing symptoms they believe could be long Covid, but don’t know they were infected, they can ask their doctor to be tested for an historical infection. However, this comes with a price