Hutt South race too close to call

Superficially, Hutt South looks like low-hanging Labour fruit that’s ripe for the plucking by National’s list MP, Chris Bishop. Taken together, the 2014 boundary changes that (a) moved Hutt Valley’s affluent western hills into the electorate while (b) removing the Labour stronghold of Naenae continue to play to National’s advantage.

In addition, the waves of gentrification (and increasingly unaffordable housing) have been steadily eroding Labour’s traditional support in Petone, and along the suburban rail corridor. In Hutt South as elsewhere, Labour is caught between the Greens’ appeal to the influx of urban liberals, and New Zealand First’s pitch to older, working class conservatives.

And yet, and yet…Labour candidate Ginny Andersen makes this less than a foregone conclusion. Initially, her selection ahead of popular local councillor Campbell Barry raised hackles, yet those misgivings have largely subsided. Besides, that would have created a testosterone-heavy contest between two young white males. Andersen, who now lives in Belmont, arguably has an affinity on gender and family issues that Bishop – and incumbent MPTrevor Mallard – would struggle to match. Andersen’s background in community work for the Police also won’t hurt her chances – although, like Bishop, she’s done time in Parliament as well, as a political advisor.

Does Andersen regard herself as the underdog? ‘‘ No, I don’t,’’ she says firmly. Her ‘‘number one advantage’’ she says, is ‘‘having a family, having kids and knowing what that’s like.’’ On the doorstep that translates into ‘‘finding lots of things in common with Mums and Dads who are trying to give their kids the best they can.’’ Currently, she’s defending a slim 709 vote majority, after Labour’s victory margin shrank drastically from 4825 at the previous election.

Yet as Bishop tells me, the boundary changes delivered National roughly 2500 of the gains made on Labour last time around. Therefore, National’s progress on merit between 2011 and 2014 was about 1600 votes – which is almost exactly half the votes won in 2014 by Holly Walker, the strong Greens candidate then who isn’t running this time. In a 2017 campaign where tactical voting by the Greens/Labour bloc will be a common theme, the challenge facing Labour may not be quite as hopeless as initial soundings would suggest.

Hutt South has a strong identity. Statistically, it is classic middle New Zealand, amid pockets of affluence and pockets of deprivation. Even so, an obvious divide exists between the wealthier voters on the western hills, central Hutt and along the bays to Eastbourne on one hand - and the poorer inhabitants of Wainuiomata, parts of Avalon and Moera on the other.

‘‘The crucial battleground for me is Wainuiomata,’’ Bishop says. Previously, the National Party ‘‘has not properly engaged’’ there. ‘‘I’m going to change that. I’ve really tried hard to be active and visible in the community.’’

To that end, he’s opened the party’s first ever Wainuiomata office.

As an insider in a third term government, Bishop will be fighting perceptions that he’s more part of the problem than part of the solution. Andersen, who stood in Ohariu in 2014, has to win the confidence of the locals. The outcome looks too close to call.