“This is the pinnacle race for a jockey in New Zealand, I think. Probably the only one that rivals it is the Auckland Cup, but this is the three-year-old Classic. This is the one.”
and a fast-finishing second behind Derby favourite Puccini in the Gr II Avondale Guineas (2100m) at Ellerslie earlier this month.
“She’s kept improving all the time,” Coleman said.
“I always thought she had potential. The Derby was a long way off earlier on but after her runs at Ellerslie over the Christmas carnival, we knew this could be her race.
“I couldn’t be happier with her. Her Avondale Guineas run was great and she should have taken improvement, having not run for six weeks beforehand. She felt great and with that improvement she should be right in the mix for the Derby.”
Rising Romance goes into the Derby at just her eighth start, having won three of her seven appearances so far.
She has followed a similar leadup programme to the one the Logans used with last year’s Derby winner Habibi, who also won the Trevor Eagle Memorial before racing twice over the Christmas carnival at Ellerslie then placing in the Avondale Guineas with a six-week break between races.
The similarities don’t end there either, with both fillies by Ekraar, both carrying the No 16 saddlecloth and drawing barrier one.
Coleman was rapt to draw the inside as Rising Romance prepared to tackle 2400m for the first time.
“Over 2400m, next to the fence – it’s the shortest way home,” he said.
“She’s got enough gate speed to use the barrier and with the other speed horse – Puccini – drawn barrier three, she’s going to either be following him or one spot further back from him in the running.
“She’s got a great temperament and she switches off and doesn’t pull in her
Connections of ruling Derby favourite Puccini may have preferred a wider draw than barrier three for the winner from the front of key leadup races, the Waikato Guineas and the Avondale Guineas. Both times Puccini was able to roll to the front with shorter runs into the first bend. But from barrier three, Puccini will still roll forward but most likely have to be extended to hold the front as the likes of Stand Your Ground, Spellbinder, Fast Dragon and Habitual Offender make their plays to go a prominent position closer than three wide.
That should mean the first 500m of the Derby is run at a solid pace, though unless a runner remains trapped three wide heading into the back straight, the tempo should slow, giving the frontrunners a chance to get relaxed and into a rhythm. Puccini has thrived on this scenario in his past two runs and if he hasn’t had to work too hard and still lands in front, he becomes awfully hard to beat. If he has had to extend himself to hold out those coming across, the stocks of those just in behind the pace, such as second favourite Rising Romance, will go up.
Third favourite Spellbinder will need to work hard to get into a prominent position from barrier 19, though it’s not a given Matthew Cameron will press the button early on her. She has good tactical races. She’s really placid. She seems to be able to handle most conditions too if it looked like being any rain about.”
TAB bookmakers yesterday had Rising Romance as a $4 second favourite for the Derby behind $ 3.20 favourite Puccini, the winner of the Waikato Guineas and Avondale Guineas in his past two starts.
While Rising Romance couldn’t beat Puccini last time, Coleman felt she was well-placed to turn the tables tomorrow.
“We were taking ground off Puccini and she was strong to the line,” Coleman said.
“She got quite a heavy bump just before the corner and got a bit unbalanced so I had to steady her and balance her up again, which didn’t help either. She probably could have run speed and 500m before the first turn to get across and connections should take heart from Fix’s gallant run for second in last year’s Derby from a similar draw. Waikato Guineas runner-up Colonel Carrera ran well at Te Rapa from close to the pace and looks a another prospect to press forward from a wide gate.
Those poised to get the best runs in transit are Rising Romance, Blizzard from barrier two, Fast Dragon and Lucky Feather. Settling close to the speed without having to sit three wide is always favourable in a Derby and this quartet fits that bill. Fourth favourite Weregoingtogetcha looks the most potent of those likely to settle off the pace and having a horse trapped three-wide into the first bend and then pressing on to force the pace will be advantageous to his chances. Glorious Lad has a tricky draw in barrier 11 but big-race rider Mark Du Plessis won’t allow his mount to be trapped three wide.
The Fire Inside is an uncertain runner from barrier 21 and whether she starts or not could affect the race tempo. She has raced handy in her past two starts and if she doesn’t start or if connections opt to tuck back in from the wide gate, will ease some of the early pressure on the frontrunners. Her ready replacement in the field Sir Lancelot doesn’t appear to be a speed influence in the race. him a fair bit closer had she not got that bump.”
Asked to name Rising Romance’s main opposition, Coleman said: “Puccini for sure. But Weregoingtogetcha’s run in the Waikato Guineas was terrific and there’s Spellbinder, Glorious Lad and Blizzard who have all got chances.
“Anything can happen in these races.
“Rising Romance and Puccini are not the only two chances in the Derby but they look the obvious two.”
Coleman, who – besides winning the Derby twice – finished second on Down The Road in 2009 and third aboard On The Level in 2011, admitted he was going into tomorrow’s feature full of confidence in the race all jockeys wanted to win. “I expect her to win,” he said. “I don’t like to get over the top, shouting from rooftops ‘I’m going to win’‚ but I am pretty confident.
“This is the pinnacle race for a jockey in New Zealand, I think. Probably the only one that rivals it is the Auckland Cup, but this is the three-year-old Classic. This is the one.”