Russia’s military ‘moderately competent’ overall
The Russian military took up residence in Crimea more than 200 years ago, when Catherine the Great built a naval base at Sevastopol.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Ukraine tussled repeatedly over dividing up the Black Sea Fleet based there. Today, Russia rents its Sevastopol base from Ukraine, where it has a presence better suited to bullying small neighbours than fighting a real war, according to Mark Galeotti, author of Russian Security and Paramilitary Forces Since 1991.
Galeotti, a professor at New York University, answered a series of questions about Russia’s military.
Q: How strong is Russia’s Black Sea Fleet?
A: As a war-fighting force, it’s not particularly impressive. Its main vessel was basically built to fight other ships and so is only useful in fighting a naval war. It’s got the Moskva, an ageing guided missile cruiser; a large antisubmarine warfare cruiser – very dated; a destroyer and two frigates, which are more versatile; landing ships; and a diesel attack submarine. It’s not a particularly powerful force. The Italian Navy alone could easily destroy it.
Q: How capable is Russia’s military overall?
A: It’s moderately competent. It’s not at the level of the American, or British, or German military, but it’s better than in the 1990s. The [Russian] military is good at bullying small neighbours, but it would not be effective against Nato. It would not be able to defeat China.
Q: Why was it effective against Georgia?
A: The Black Sea Fleet had some value against Georgia because it was fighting a small navy. The Russian military could roll into Ukraine, but it would be up for a fight. The Ukrainians are rather more ready than the Georgians.
Q: What does Russia want in Crimea?
A: If Russia wanted to conquer the place, they could conquer the place. But what would it gain by claiming formal control over this region? It doesn’t add up to me as being a takeover. It’s a martial and heavy-handed political manoeuvre to make sure Kiev considers Russia’s interests. Q: Where are the Russian bases? A: The main one is the fleet headquarters and naval infantry brigade headquarters at Sevastopol. There are four coastal missile regiments, four different bases. There are at least a dozen active bases on the Crimea. Some are just communication towers. Others are real bases. Q: Describe the troops? A: The 810 Naval Infantry Brigade has 2500 marines. They’re not elite, but they are better than average. They acquitted themselves well in Georgia and fighting pirates off Somalia. There are also some naval special forces. It’s hard to be sure, but maybe 200 to 300. They may not be Green Berets, but they’re pretty good. There’s a large Black Sea Naval Air Force and ancillary groups you can put a gun in many of their hands, if need be. If you need people to block a road, they can do it. streets around the parliamentary complex and seized control of regional airports, amid street protests by proRussian Crimeans calling for Moscow’s protection from the new government in Kiev.
That government came to power last week in the wake of months of prodemocracy protests against the nowfugitive president, Viktor Yanukovich, and his decision to turn Ukraine toward Russia, its longtime patron, instead of the European Union.
Despite the calls for Moscow’s help, there has been no sign of ethnic Russians facing attacks in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine.
Despite Putin’s sharp move, there were possible signs yesterday that the Russian leader could soften his approach.
Former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who was freed a week ago after more than two years in prison, was reported to be heading to Moscow for a meeting with Putin, though her spokeswoman denied that. Putin has had good ties with Tymoshenko in the past, and he may look to her for a possible compromise.
In a statement posted on her party’s website, Tymoshenko urged the UN Security Council to meet in Kiev and asked the EU leaders to convene a meeting in Crimea.
She urged the West to help protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, asked Ukrainians to remain calm and voiced hope that diplomacy will succeed.
In Crimea, the new pro-Russian prime minister – who came to power after the gunmen swept into parliament on Friday – claimed control of the military and police and asked Putin for help in keeping the peace.