Smoke haze over Erdogan indicates there’s a fire

Erdogan has had too much power for too long and he has become arrogant and reckless. and political ally, the Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen. Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in the United States, leads a conservative religious movement known as Hizmet (Service). It has millions of followers, and its help is seen as vital in Erdogan’s election victories.

The split between Erdogan and Gulen is allegedly due to the latter’s criticism of official corruption in large construction and real estate projects.

Erdogan certainly saw the arrests on December 17 as a direct attack by Gulen on his authority. He immediately retaliated by dismissing the senior officers on the Istanbul police force who ran the financial crime, organised crime, smuggling and antiterrorist departments. The purge rapidly grew until 2000 senior police officers across the country had been fired, suspended or moved to traffic duty.

The AK Party also brought in emergency legislation that would put senior judges and prosecutors under the direct control of the minister of justice (presumably so they could be prevented from bringing prosecutions against AK members). The European Union warned that this law would prejudice Turkey’s application for membership, but Erdogan wasn’t interested. Elections are due this year, and he is now fighting for his political life.

Erdogan has had too much power for too long and he has become arrogant and reckless, but few people could have foreseen that he would end up involved in such a massive corruption scandal. Nor is his response to the crisis reassuring: firing policemen, hobbling judges and prosecutors, and blaming it all on ‘‘dark circles’’ of plotters.

This is not the behaviour of an innocent man facing unjust accusations. It is the behaviour of a cornered rat.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.