Too late for Key to help besieged Abbott

‘‘Good on you, mate.’’

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s words to John Key at the close of the business end of their annual bilateral talks were as heartfelt as they were unscripted.

After another torrid session of questions about his seemingly doomed leadership, Abbott was a drowning man in need of a life raft – and found it in Key.

With a dwindling number of supporters on his side of the Tasman, Abbott would have been comforted to hear Key praise his Australian counterpart as an ‘‘outstanding’’ prime minister.

He had worked hard for his country and had shown leadership on inter- national issues, Key said. It was a privilege to work alongside him.

But Key may as well have been delivering Abbott’s obituary. The momentum against his leadership is snowballing and reports suggest he could be ousted as early as this week.

With the dust yet to settle on who might replace him, there will be small ripples of concern on this side of the Tasman about what that means for New Zealand.

Abbott, and before him Labor prime minister Julia Gillard, have a natural affection for New Zealand that elevated the relationship to its closest in years. John Howard was another who remained staunchly faithful to the Anzac bond.

But others over the years have been less than enamoured. Kevin Rudd was too caught up in Australia’s middlepower ambitions to pay his small neighbour much attention, while relations were notoriously fraught between the two countries in the immediate postAnzus era.

Those in the frame to replace Abbott include Foreign Minister Julia Bishop. She appears to have a good rapport with New Zealand counterpart Murray McCully, and her presence at the transTasman leadership forum in Auckland suggests she would maintain the relationship at its current level. Another contender, Malcolm Turnbull, is more of an unknown quantity.

But whoever replaces Abbott – if and when the much talked about leadership spill happens – it will take time to build the sort of relationship that he and Key have developed. From New Zealand’s point of view, however, that may be less of a factor than the ongoing political instability across the Tasman.

As Key noted during his Saturday press conference with Abbott, a strong Australia is good for the New Zealand economy. As Australian media reported at the weekend, even staunch business supporters of Abbott now see a leadership change as inevitable to restore economic confidence.

There would have been little solace for Abbott in the headlines that greeted his return to Australia – particularly one in the Sydney Morning Herald urging him to ‘‘learn some lessons from John Key’’.

‘‘Thanks, mate’’ was Abbott’s likely response to that one.

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and New Zealand Prime Minister John Key meet rural fire service officers, who have served in Australia, in Auckland on Saturday.