Starc reality: Aussie still cup favourites

Black Caps’ thriller win underlines Australia’s strengths, Mark Geenty writes.

Australia remain clear bookmakers’ favourites to win the Cricket World Cup despite New Zealand’s great Eden Park escape.

The Black Caps reclaimed the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy with Saturday’s one-wicket victory, before a sellout crowd of 40,053, but more significant silverware could be at stake next time the sides are seeded to play – on March 29 in Melbourne.

A revised TAB market yesterday had Australia as $2.85 favourites to hoist the trophy at the MCG, with New Zealand at $3.50, South Africa $4, India $7 and the rest rated next to no chance. That is hard to disagree with, as Australia won’t leave home again and so nearly snatched a win from nowhere defending 151 after a fortnight’s break.

On current rankings, and assuming no quarterfinal upsets, unbeaten New Zealand will host South Africa back at Eden Park on March 24 in the first semifinal and Australia will host India in Sydney.

Ireland, Zimbabwe and Pakistan all remain in the mix as the Black Caps’ likely quarterfinal foes from pool B.

As we saw on Saturday in a staggering 55.3 overs where 19 wickets tumbled and 303 runs were scored, the sides with quality fast swing bowlers and batsmen with cool heads will be leading contenders. New Zealand had one in each category, Trent Boult (5-27) and Kane Williamson (45 not out), who calmly smote the winning six off Pat Cummins, while Australia’s Mitchell Starc nearly snatched the game with his 6-28 after he worryingly bamboozled key batsmen Ross Taylor and Grant Elliott.

Questions about New Zealand’s batting against quality pace and swing will continue, although coach Mike Hesson felt it was a perfect storm for the lanky left-armer. In warm, calm weather and with two new white Kookaburra balls, the swing actually increased as each innings progressed.

‘‘Starc usually swings the new ball for an over or so. The fact the ball swung more in his second spell was unexpected.

‘‘Tim [Southee] showed that at the Cake Tin [against England],’’ Hesson said. ‘‘Sometimes it’s the characteristics of the ball, sometimes a high pressure zone is created that allows it to swing.

‘‘That’s something we’re going to have to prepare for better next time.’’

Australia’s captain, Michael Clarke, agreed his batsmen were ill-prepared for Boult whose second spell resulted in five wickets for three runs in five overs.

‘‘We were extremely poor,’’ Clarke said of his team’s shot selection and defence. But about Starc, the captain glowed. ‘‘That individual performance was as good as you will see in any form of the game.’’

There may be mental scarring for New Zealand’s batsmen but Hesson gladly reported no physical issues for Brendon McCullum after his left forearm was smashed by a Mitchell Johnson ball.

Despite his arm blowing up like Popeye’s underneath a bandage, McCullum was not sent for X-rays and was diagnosed with a ‘‘deep contusion’’ after blasting 50 off 24 balls.

‘‘All signs are that he will be fine,’’ Hesson said.

There is time now to rest for McCullum and his team as the major flaws in this lengthy tournament format become apparent. New Zealand face Afghanistan and Bangladesh in their final two pool games, and have nearly three weeks until their quarterfinal which will begin a run of three big knockout games in eight days should they reach the decider.

For a second straight week the Black Caps get three days’ leave and will have their first training in Napier on Wednesday. Hesson would not reveal whether he saw a chance to give Tom Latham, Mitchell McClenaghan, Kyle Mills or Nathan McCullum their first games of the tournament.

‘‘It’s always a balancing act. When you do have a week between games if you leave out some of your key players, it can be two weeks before they play another game which is a long time.

‘‘We’ll have to sit down and work out

Kane Williamson and Trent Boult celebrate victory in the World Cup match against Australia at Eden Park on Saturday. the pros and cons of both.’’

Hesson hailed the contributions of Boult, spinner Daniel Vettori, McCullum and cool-headed Williamson to secure their first World Cup win over Australia since 1999. There were valuable lessons in their first completed trans-Tasman one-day international in four years.

‘‘There’s always a bit of mystique surrounding Australia and the fact a lot of our guys haven’t played them; we’ll be far better off for having that game against them.’’

Ugly win opens door to doubt: Page 17