Peters always entertaining

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters disclosed on Waitangi Day he was considering running for the vacant Northland seat at the byelection on March 28. He had been inundated with calls asking if he would put his name forward for the position, he said. Analysing the situation at that time, political pundit David Farrar described Northland as a safe seat for National but not impenetrable.

Mike Sabin, who has resigned in curious circumstances for personal reasons, was re-elected at the general election last year with a majority of 9300. NZ First got 12.8 per cent of the party vote; Labour got 16.6. The pundits could think of many reasons why Peters would run: he was born in the region, the Peters family is from there, he had better name recognition than any candidate National was likely to stand. There were reasons why he would not run, too: He would not want the workload of an electorate MP, he would not fancy coming third, his work for the electorate would hamper his ability to campaign nationally for his party. On Friday, the conjecture was ended and Peters confirmed he will stand.

Labour had already selected Willow- Jean Prime as its candidate and National at the weekend confirmed its nominee, Mark Osborne. The Greens opted out. Their reasoning was that they should instead focus on their nationwide climate change and inequality campaigns, although the by-election campaign would provide a platform for those issues. By-election campaigns are not run like general election campaigns, when it’s the party vote that matters most. This time the parties will focus on supporting their candidates and denigrating opponents.

Peters – who said he has always been concerned for Northland – should be asked why his party didn’t bother standing candidates in the 2008, 2011 and 2014 elections. More critically, a Peters victory would enable him to let the next person on New Zealand First’s list become an MP. National’s number of MPs would drop to 59, down from the 60 won at the general election, while NZ First’s parliamentary strength would increase to 12. But it’s more likely Peters will split any opposition vote and enhance National’s chances of victory. Whatever the result, his participation will make the campaign more entertaining.