Election marks critical stage for CBD
Hamilton’s CBD has been the subject of much discussion, both in the opinion pages of the Waikato Times and in the mayoral office. Opinions are typically strong, occasionally conflicting, and always passionate. It’s clear people care about the CBD and it’s no surprise it’s an election issue. But in the midst of all the debate about immediate problems it can be difficult to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
The critical point to recognise is that there will be growth, in part due to wider societal changes. Official figures suggest that Hamilton will grow from 150,000 in 2013 to around 200,000 20 years from now. However, this figure is on the very low side.
In reality Auckland’s house prices and other factors should significantly increase this. This will happen whoever gets elected, so the key challenge for the new mayor is simple: to shape that growth so it brings the maximum benefit to the city.
For example, the most costly way for any city to grow is to spend a lot on infrastructure to build more low density housing on the edge. It makes better economic sense if a good proportion of growth is directed living in and around the CBD, so we both avoid extra debt from new infrastructure and regenerate the central city at the same time.
In addition to a rise in residents, shoppers, and business owners from population growth, it is useful to look in more depth at demographic changes. It may surprise some to hear that Hamilton is already the most youthful city in New Zealand, with 48% of the population under 30. It is a trend that is set to continue as the spiralling housing market in Auckland pushes young singles, couples and families to the surrounding regions as a home in Auckland becomes increasingly unfeasible. In the University of Waikato and Wintec we also have two higher education facilities that are looking to expand student numbers. This demographic dividend is a real coup for Hamilton; the under 30s are economically active and tend to be significant users of city centres.
But these people all need homes. In 2015 Hamilton had the fastest rising house prices in the country. This has been mainly targeted at the lower end of the market and, in addition to population growth, is partly driven by Aucklanders looking for investment properties. Hamilton’s housing is dominated by family homes on a decentsized plot in the expanding suburbs, but as prices increase so too does the viability of inner-city living. There is a lot of spare space around the CBD, and I expect developers will start to respond to shifting market signals regarding the type, density and affordability of dwellings. This isn’t just a matter of younger age groups, pensioners whose children have flown the nest may also wish to downsize to a quality, smaller dwelling and free capital.
Managing growth wisely is the key to the city’s future. Simply put, the political challenge is to direct the influx of people to where we will reap the most benefit – another 5000-10,000 people living within a 15-minute walk of the core will transform the city. Where people go, capital follows; bars and shops spring up, and more services appear from this virtuous circle of demand and investment.
Without going into detail, there are also some good council policies starting to emerge that will benefit the CBD. For example, the Ferrybank project will help lever in millions of dollars of investment and help turn the city towards the Waikato River. Some exciting public realm works are under way, such as the new Victoria on the River public space. The council is also becoming more responsive to partnership working and is actively promoting offices in the city centre.
It is vital that after the forthcoming elections, the council continues to make the most of the opportunities coming its way. This means being less ideological about what the council should be doing and instead focusing on outcomes.
A possible threat is historical. The shadow cast by the V8s decision was more than financial; it created a risk aversion amongst some politicians and a narrow view of what council should be doing. Positive approaches that involve funds to lever in much more investment can be stifled by simplistic calls to ‘remember the V8s’, but this hands-off strategy doesn’t appreciate how cities all around the world become successful by innovatively working in partnership with the private sector. Thankfully however, as seen by the Ferrybank development, it is a political argument that is gradually being won – to the huge benefit of future citizens.
The challenge for politicians is to take the maximum advantage of what is coming over the horizon and direct investment so it brings the maximum long-term benefit. Make no mistake, this is a golden opportunity to become mayor. The question for voters is who do they trust to shape that growth so the legacy is a good one?