Peters smells blood in political waters
But the polls may not tell the whole story.
The big unknown is whether the same forces driving change in the United States and Britain lie beneath the surface here. No one saw Donald Trump coming and they didn’t see Brexit coming either. So what could drive an upset? Winston Peters has been riding a fresh wave of popularity; his perennial bandwagon, immigration, is resonating as record numbers of migrants put pressure on housing, schools, hospitals and groaning infrastructure.
There are echoes of Trump in Peters’ NZ First rhetoric but Peters of course predates the Trump phenomenon by decades. Peters is New Zealand’s most recognisable politician. That makes him an unlikely lightning rod for the antiestablishment protest vote that gathered around Trump.
But Peters’ rising poll numbers suggest he is striking a similar chord – on immigration, on foreign investment, and on law and order.
But this election is also a return to situation normal. After eight years of belt tightening and discipline, and a focus on getting the books back in the black, hip pocket promises are back in fashion.
Steven Joyce’s first budget promised cash for workers in the form of tax threshold adjustments – $21 a week for a worker on the average wage, and even more for families.
Working for Families payments were boosted, and the accommodation supplement was raised for the first time since 2003.
But there is still a big group that misses out, for those at the very bottom of the income ladder the tax cut is not much more than $1 and the accommodation supplement increases are merely a catch up after years of soaring house prices and rents eating into people’s disposable incomes.
And despite the economy’s golden run, many workers can’t feel the glow.
The Working for Families changes and boost to the accommodation supplement will lift tens of thousands of children out of poverty, but many tens of thousands more remain below the official breadline.
Wages have failed to keep pace with house price inflation and lower and even middle-income families feel like they are doing it tough.
Years of enforced restraint in government spending, meanwhile, have put services and infrastructure under pressure. National is being forced to play catch up there as well – a big boost to police numbers announced at the start of the year, more money for hospitals in the budget, and a bonanza in infrastructure spending.
Labour’s pitch to the electorate will be to blame those ills on nine years of neglect from National; National’s counter will be the healthy state of the government’s books. As with previous elections, National is selling itself as the safer pair of hands.
But the voter who makes the biggest impact on this election may be the one who doesn’t bother turning up at all, the non-voter. Voter turnout has been on a steady decline as Kiwis, particularly younger generations, feel increasingly disengaged from the political process.
In a low turnout environment, politicians are forced to fight elections over issues that resonate with those who are most motivated to vote – and they tend to be the older, more conservative voter rather than the younger generations who have to live with the consequences longest.