A capital idea for Hamilton

As Wellington burns – or falls into the sea – Hamilton could come into its own. For those who enjoy wild speculation, the prospect of a new capital for New Zealand provides ready fodder. Our long islands are shaky and disaster prone; our windy capital more so than most.

The first capital, near Korora¯ reka, and second, Auckland, are frequently named in such discussions. Palmerston North is close to military bases and has been granted a mention.

But could the often-maligned and often-claimed ‘‘city of the future’’ become politically central to New Zealand?

The country’s largest inland city, Hamilton, is poised to grow quickly with

New Zealand. With an estimated population of 160,000, it is expected to grow to 190,000 by 2031.

But this is only part of the picture: Hamilton is one corner of the Golden Triangle, a term encapsulating Auckland and Tauranga, and with it 53 per cent of the population by 2031, according to a Ministry of Transport figure.

Already, the median centre of the country’s population (the line which divides the country’s population) is 1km west of Ka¯ whia.

To be clear: no-one is saying Hamilton should be New Zealand’s capital city.

Well, except for Hamilton mayor Andrew King. Forever an advocate of the city, King said it ‘‘just beats everybody, hands down. It’s just a matter of when’’.

Here’s his pitch – the city owns an airport with existing permission to expand: ‘‘It will be Auckland’s second airport one day.’’ There are rail links to Auckland, Tauranga and Wellington; half the country’s population is two hours away; there’s limited natural disaster risk and ‘‘this is one of the most prosperous areas in New Zealand’’.

‘‘This is naturally going to come. We all know that Wellington isn’t the right place, it’s a dying town. It’s just a matter of where we build the Beehive, really . . .’’

Some experts at the University of Waikato agree Hamilton could be the capital, and at least agree the city will be central to New Zealand.

Professor in earth sciences David Lowe says his new slogan for the city requires consideration: ‘‘Hamilton’s got its faults.’’

Quite literally: the city has some 25 faults running north to south, with at least five severe shaking events in the past 20,000 years and some which pose a risk to its hospital and university.

‘‘We were sitting fairly smugly here until about 25 years ago when we discovered these wretched faults.’’

Lowe – at pains to explain he is more volcanologist than earthquake specialist – said by all accounts Hamilton would be a better bet than Wellington, with adequate access a central position.

‘‘Times have changed. I’m not a demographer or a politician, but it should be considered for two reasons: firstly, the risk of serious natural disaster is probably lower in Hamilton, as we don’t have a tsunami risk . . . And we do have faults, but they may not be as frequently active as the ones in Wellington.’’

University of Waikato associate professor in hydrology Earl Bardsley has a track record on this capital subject, making headlines in 2005 by suggesting public servants should relocate to Northland.

This is for the same reason as Lowe: earthquake risk.

But Bardsley concedes the tectonic argument is one-dimensional; in other aspects Hamilton could be favoured.

‘‘It can grow out, and it’s central, and it’s got infrastructure and a water supply, which Northland doesn’t have so much.’’

But it’s important to consider running a city long-term, and the data for Hamilton didn’t make a compelling case, he said.

‘‘If you take the long view, Wellington is a blimmin’ expensive capital to have. You’re going to have to be rebuilding it every couple of hundred years.’’

But Hamilton might get into just as much trouble, he said.

Professor of environment planning Iain White was less willing to speculate on Hamilton as a potential capital, and lukewarm to the ‘‘city of the future’’ moniker.

‘‘It depends on our politicians. The city of the future is created by the decisions of today, are those decisions long-term, strategic and aspirational enough?’’

He said Hamilton was on the cusp of transforming from a regional service town into a fully fledged city, better equipped to serve cultural offerings.

And it has all the structural building blocks of a city: access to housing, space for development and industry.

‘‘It means we can grow regardless, if we’re the capital or not.’’