Big dry on the horizon
Waikato farmland is looking lush and green right now, but new predictions from Niwa suggest it won’t last.
Early indications suggest it will be dry in the upper North Island with lower than usual rainfall for November and December.
Niwa principal scientist Chris Brandolino said their latest signals were that predicted rainfall will be below what scientists classified as normal.
"When we look at the Waikato region, I think the upper half of the North Island, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Northland, I think those regions are probably going to have to keep a sharp eye for dryness.’’
But Brandolino said it was still too early to panic with Niwa’s official summer outlook not due to be released until the end of November.
‘‘Dryness is not drought,’’ he said. Niwa’s latest climate update predicted a 68 per cent chance of an El Nino weather pattern during October-December and a 71 per cent chance for El Nino conditions during April-June next year.
El Nino weather patterns are typically characterised by strong westerly winds and drier than normal conditions in the east. However, Brandolino said if an El Nino does strike, it is likely to be a weak weather system that will have less control of the country’s climate heading into summer.
‘‘It will be part of the equation, but there will be other climate drivers that grab that steering wheel and switch it from an El Nino outcome.’’
The latest Waikato soil moisture readings showed the region was dry and going to get drier.
The region was in the middle of a sustained high that will remain for the next seven to 10 days that will see unusually warm temperatures over much of the country. It was then be interrupted by a cold front that will bring some rain which he hoped would be beneficial.
‘‘Once that works its way through and we start to enter the month of November, dryness could once again set in.’’
Waikato Federated Farmers president Andrew McGiven said farmers planned for the worst but hoped for the best when it came to the weather.
It had been a great spring so far with milk production up across the region. It had started becoming dry in some places before widespread rain hit the region several days ago bringing 35ml to his dairy farm near Te Aroha.
But it was not unusual for it to become dry in late October because wind usually quickly evaporated moisture. It was expected to get dry, but how long it stayed dry was the key question.
‘‘We’re crossing our fingers that we don’t have a heatwave like they have over in Europe.’’
Right now, farmers and contractors were making as much grass silage for supplementary feed as possible. Farmers had also planted summer feed crops including plantain, maize and turnips to give themselves a feed reserve in the back end of the milking season.
‘‘You have just got to do as much budgeting and planning for your feed and supplements as possible. The weather’s not in our hands and you have just got to ride with it and most realise that,’’ he said.
Lichfield’s Gray and Marilyn Baldwin are in the middle of planting 150 hectares of maize that will safeguard their dairy farm if it turned dry. They will use 65ha of it and plan to sell the rest to their neighbours. They grew 18.6 tonnes of maize per hectare last year and would produce 2790t this season if they grow the same yield.
They grow maize because grass was an unreliable feed source over summer and during the winter when the ground became saturated, Gray said.
‘‘Having that supplement on hand in the bunker for drought or floods or whatever the weather chucks at us is really comforting.’’
They will use the cash from selling their maize to buy lucerne bales to balance out the diet of their cows.