Clear and present danger
Conflict, extreme weather and disaster: the military is on the front line of climate change, reports Andrea Vance.
The Defence Force will be stretched beyond capacity as global warming brings humanitarian disasters and violent conflict to the South Pacific.
That’s the alarming conclusion from a report published yesterday by the Government. It says climate change is now ‘‘a threat in its own right’’.
The joint Defence Ministry and Defence Force paper warns that extreme weather patterns will threaten water, food and energy security. Shortages often spark violence.
‘‘Climate change will be one of the greatest security challenges for New Zealand Defence in the coming decades,’’ the report says. ‘‘The links between climate change are indirect but demonstrable . . . [the impacts] will require more humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief, stability operations and search and rescue missions.’’
It goes on to predict: ‘‘The Defence Force may be faced with more frequent and concurrent operational commitments, which will stretch resources and may reduce readiness for other requirements.’’
The largest temperature changes will take place between the equator and New Zealand, and will deliver intense and frequent rain storms, tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.
As this weather slams into New Zealand, critical infrastructure is likely to be damaged, requiring a military response. Estimates put five airports, more than 2000 kilometres of road and 46km of rail, as well as almost 45,000 residential buildings, at risk from rising seas.
Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world and, as one of their closest neighbours, New Zealand is expected to respond when natural disasters strike.
Low-lying Pacific island nations will be inundated, it warns, as the western Pacific Ocean is rising by about three millimetres a year – three times faster than the global average.
Eight islands in Micronesia and the Solomon Islands have already been immersed. A Massey University report,
He Waka Eke Noa [The canoe we are all in, without exception], recently noted: ‘‘Climate change is already impacting infrastructure across the Pacific, particularly wharves but also buildings . . . poorly built Chinese development projects such as the courthouse in the Cook Islands were not appropriately built for either the current climate or increased climatic changes.’’
More worryingly, these environmental disasters will exacerbate water and food shortages, and stretch public health systems in already small and fragile economies.
Soil will become salinated and unproductive, while warmer waters become less saline. When food and water security are threatened, disorder and violence are never far away.
‘‘When the effects of climate change intersect with a complex array of environmental and social issues, they can be a significant contributor to both low-level and more violent conflict,’’ the Defence Force report warns. ‘‘The security implications of climate change are further magnified in areas dealing with weak governance or corruption.’’
The Massey report, produced from a workshop with diplomats, scientists, defence and security experts and academics in May, reaches a similar dystopian conclusion.
‘‘The human security implications of climate change could lead to insecurity as a consequence of displacement, the breakdown of traditional power structures, and the placing of governments and systems under duress.’’
It puts access to food, water and land as the top three ‘‘climate stressors’’ that could trigger security problems.
Anna Powles, of Massey’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, says the United Nations and other non-governmental organisations have charted direct links between severe weather events and the rise of terrorism and conflict in Mali and South Sudan.
‘‘I’m not saying we are going to see that in the Pacific to the same degree, but in areas where there have already been conflicts, that are already under pressure and strain and there isn’t necessarily good governance, we may see instances of small-scale instability and conflict.’’
Jose Sousa-Santos, an AsiaPacific security specialist, says tension occurs when people are displaced.
‘‘Where communities will be forced to move into a plot of land which is not their own, it may upset the traditional landowners. International aid . . . and these kind of initiatives also create communal jealousy – where [some] are receiving new houses and assistance, while the original landowners . . . will not receive it – that will cause friction.’’
The Defence Force is also alert to the heightened security risks of climate migration, both in the Pacific and maritime Southeast Asia and South Asia.
‘‘There have been instances of communities split up for relocation, some being moved to areas with different cultures without prior consultation with host communities, and others being moved into crowded areas,’’ the report notes.
‘‘In such cases there have been reports of low-level conflict over land – sometimes deadly – and reports of increased levels of violence, including against women and children.’’
While not specifically mentioned in the Defence report, the spectre of China, and its controversial Pacific aid policies, looms large.
‘‘Some states could look to use assistance in climate change disaster adaption, mitigation response, and recovery as a way to influence and access,’’ the report notes.
New Zealand’s search and rescue region already covers more than 9 per cent of the planet. As the seas warm, fish stocks will decline and some will begin to migrate south.
Commercial overfishing will drive traditional fishers away from their coastlines in search of catches, putting them at risk. The navy will also come under pressure to monitor and track the massive foreign fleets in search of migrating shoals.
‘‘[Climate change] . . . particularly in the Pacific and in the Southern Ocean, could see fishing vessels operating in new areas, including in international waters and New Zealand’s expansive search and rescue area of responsibility in the coming years,’’ the Defence report notes.
‘‘Maritime domain awareness will be increasingly important in helping to assess how climate change is affecting other regional security trends, such as illegal and unreported and unregulated fishing.’’
The report suggests ongoing work with Five Eyes intelligence partners, and South American, Pacific and Southeast Asian governments, will be ‘‘crucial’’.
Sousa-Santos says competition to offer aid packages is a risk – and New Zealand diplomats and Defence personnel need to spend more time on the ground, understanding Pacific communities, before disaster hits.
Both Powles and Sousa Santos are concerned the Defence Force is not yet ready for global warming.
Sousa-Santos puts the emphasis on capability. ‘‘We don’t really have the right toys, the right kit to respond in the same way as Australia and the US.
‘‘We don’t have landing craft, our amphibious capability is almost non-existent, our last helicopter purchase was a little short-sighted.
‘‘We are very focused on peacekeeping, and still very much a ground-based Defence Force.’’
Defence Minister Ron Mark says the Government’s Strategic Defence Policy Statement, published in July, recognised the implications for operations.
‘‘The state of the Southern Ocean is changing, meaning our current vessels are getting close to the limits of being able to operate safely.
‘‘Therefore it stands to reason that we needed to look deeper in order to better understand the social and security implications of climate change, and what our Defence Force will face when it responds to these weather events.’’
The assessment is a ‘‘necessary first step’’, he says. ‘‘It makes it clear that Defence will have to adapt to meet the challenges posed by this emerging threat to our security. We are now using this assessment to inform our review of the Defence Capability Plan, which I expect to release early next year.’’
Powles says the priority must be better relationships with Pacific island neighbours. ‘‘We are never going to be the sole actor. If we are going to be spending a lot more time in the Pacific island countries, then we really need to prioritise how we engage with local populations and NGOs, and how we co-ordinate with other actors, with Australia, China and France. That’s where we are weakest.’’
But military top brass are wise to the need to start planning for increasing humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and search and rescue in new areas. A new ‘‘implementation plan’’ kicks in next year.
The report recommends increasing work alongside local and international agencies to adapt and build resilience. They also want to gain ‘‘a better understanding of South Pacific counterparts’ concerns around climate change’’.
And they suggest supporting more scientific research in the South Pacific, Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
The Defence Force also wants to become a more ‘‘environmentally aware agency’’ – more green power than soft power.
‘‘[It] should invest more in research relating to science and technological developments around green or more sustainable military technology, particularly in relation to different types of fuels, energy storage and renewable energy
. . . options for being more sustainable on camps and bases,’’ the report recommends.
Other suggestions include reporting on its emissions and placing sustainability considerations in procurement.
This green approach ‘‘would also help bolster the standing of the Defence Force in the South Pacific region, where climate change is seen as a top security threat’’, the report concludes.