At a glance
Gary Stead and Kane Williamson are not prone to kneejerk selections, but for this big occasion the cruciate ligaments need some serious flexing when the Black Caps arrive in Melbourne.
Barring a training mishap in Trent Boult’s carefully monitored loading programme, the pace spearhead will return for Lockie Ferguson in a significant Boxing Day test boost for a badly beaten New Zealand side.
But that can’t be the only change, after this humbling, overpowering defeat in Perth which presents the monumental task of winning at the MCG and SCG – where none of them have played a test – to replicate New Zealand’s only Australian series win of 34 years ago.
It’s not a time for blind loyalty. There is nothing to lose and they must address their shortcomings quickly or risk being 2-0 down before they see in the new year in Sydney.
Assuming reinforcements are not flown in, backup batsman Tom Blundell and legspinner Todd Astle are the other mustpicks, replacing Jeet Raval and Mitchell Santner. Even Matt Henry should be considered as part of a four-pronged pace attack, which would require some creative shuffling.
So, with a sober selector’s hat on, how does one pick a New Zealand XI to compete with this imposing, confident Australian side and even threaten to beat them in their first Boxing Day test since 1987?
First, the batting, which is problem No 1 against a firebreathing Mitchell Starc, the excellent Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon, with the likely addition of James Pattinson who has 20 wickets at 17.70 in three tests against the Black Caps.
It feels like pick-on-Jeet month, but Raval just cannot be thrown to the lions at the MCG colosseum averaging 7.33 from his last nine test innings.
Blundell is the only batting backup and is good enough, so he comes in. Throwing him in as a straight swap for Raval seems unnecessary, given his lack of first-class opening experience.
So that leaves Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling or a wildcard to be told ‘‘Merry Christmas, you’re facing the first ball from Starc’’.
Nicholls looks the best makeshift option, with no openers in domestic cricket demanding to be picked and Will
Young still sidelined postshoulder surgery.
Nicholls has done it ably in one-day cricket, plays the short ball well and won’t be overawed. That allows Blundell to play his first test in two years at No 5 and Watling to remain in his anchor role at No 6 and wicketkeeper.
Then there’s the wildcard pick, which would help fit Henry into the same four-pronged pace lineup from the win over Bangladesh in Wellington in March.
Astle started his first-class career as an opener before doing the reverse Mark Richardson and becoming one of the country’s top spinners and solid middle order batsman. He struggled to stamp his mark on test cricket with limited opportunities but has the intriguing record of winning all
Mark Geenty’s New Zealand XI for Melbourne: Tom Latham, Henry Nicholls, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Tom Blundell, BJ Watling, Colin de Grandhomme, Todd Astle, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Trent Boult.
Plan B: Astle opens the batting, Nicholls remains at five and Matt Henry comes in.
four tests he’s played.
Sending Astle out first with Tom Latham is a big call but would allow them to play a more attacking spinner (Santner bowled 41 wicketless overs in Perth, in more spin-friendly conditions than are likely in Melbourne), and four pacemen plus Colin de Grandhomme in their bid to snare 20 wickets.
Neil Wagner (60 overs, 7-151) and Tim Southee (51.3 overs,
9-162) were outstanding in the Perth sauna a bowler down, and the extra paceman might be insurance, too, given the toll those punishing spells may have taken.
MCG ground staff will likely go safety first after a Sheffield Shield match on a different dropin was abandoned for safety reasons this month. It means a flat one, likely to offer less steep bounce than Optus Stadium, which provides some small comfort for the New Zealanders.
Two years ago the pitch was rated ‘poor’ by the ICC after 24 wickets fell in five days against England. Last year India scored
443-7 declared batting first and hammered Australia (without suspended duo Steve Smith and David Warner) by 137 runs as fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah took nine wickets and spinner Ravi Jadeja five.
The Black Caps will hope it’s warm and still in Melbourne and the ball swings for Boult and Southee. They have nine days to dust themselves off, play a twoday match against a Victoria XI on Friday and Sunday, then grit their teeth and try to grab the ascendancy they never had in Perth.
It’s not a hopeless cause, because this is a good New Zealand team, but they need a stroke of luck and to ensure there’s no psychological or physical damage from the far west. And, pick the right XI.