How NZR failed to see the light over Foster
The country is worried. Many people look at Ian Foster, the new coach of the All Blacks, and they see a coach who appears pale and stale. We, the people, hold hope in our hearts, but have horror in our heads. We want desperately to believe that Foster is the man to take the All Blacks ahead, but New Zealand Rugby is trying our faith like never before.
There are so many more questions than answers, something that I suspect even Foster knows. Is this the man to lead us into a brave new world, we ask? Is this the man who will inspire our young men? Is this the man who will bring in new ideas? Is this the man who will outsmart the barbarians howling at our gates?
My worry is that Foster is literally an insular man. He has never coached beyond these shores. My worry is that the predicted new coaching team lacks diversity. It is very white and it is aged between 44 and 54.
So what, some of you will say. You will echo the American Fred Fleitz, who recently served as executive secretary of the National Security Council under Donald Trump. Fleitz said in defence of the CIA’s overwhelming WASPishness: ‘‘The CIA’s mission is too serious to be distracted by social engineering efforts.’’
And it is that same claim I so often hear about the All Blacks. ‘‘If all the best coaches are white males, then white men must be appointed to the top jobs. The All Blacks mission is too serious to be distracted by social engineering efforts.’’
It seems on the white face of it to be a fair response but the evidence shows it to be fatally flawed on many levels. One of the reasons terrorists were able to destroy the twin towers was because the CIA ignored repeated warnings from the Egyptian president, the Taliban foreign minister and many others that such a strike was imminent.
The CIA had a fundamental flaw. Its employment tests meant it was a self-perpetuating organisation of white males. In 1964 there were no blacks, Jews or women in the organisation. That has changed, but by nothing like as much as you would expect.
In the leadup to 9/11 the CIA was empty of Muslims. So the CIA’s terrorism experts saw Bin Laden as a primitive bearded man squatting in a cave. A Muslim would have likely seen a prophet praying in a holy place. The CIA failed to see what was in front of them.
If the CIA’s recruitment policy (and New Zealand Rugby’s) was the right way to go, then embedded white males should be the country’s success story. But what we see repeated time and time again in countries all over the world, is the success of the immigrant. Fifty-seven per cent of the top 35 companies on the Fortune 500 were founded or co-founded by immigrants.
The locals often have what is called perspective blindness, just as the CIA had, and as the All Blacks have had these past few years. As Matthew Syed details in his brilliant book Rebel Ideas
(great Christmas present, folks), study after study shows that likeminded individuals fail in tests when up against more diverse groups.
In one study at Colombia Business School two groups were given the task of solving a murder mystery. One group would consist of four friends. The other group consisted of three friends and a stranger. The friends would jump to a conclusion and be confident in how right they were. The group with an outsider would have longer debates.
The results were overwhelming. The groups of four friends were right 54 per cent of the time. The group with an outsider was right 75 per cent of the time.
This is what worries me about the All Blacks going forwards. They have become too homogenous. The white male, within a very narrow age group, rules in the coaching box. And the selection panel lacked diversity as well.
Syed’s book explains how human progress has been driven by our ability to socialise, the key ability that distinguishes us from other primates. We learn from such socialisation. Ideas multiply and multiply. And bizarrely it is this multiplication of ideas that has driven the literal growth of the human brain, rather than vice versa.
The success at Bletchley Park which helped win World War II was driven by the huge range of people from different fields of knowledge. The success of Silicon Valley was driven by the fact that socialisation within and across companies was openly encouraged.
But when I look at New Zealand Rugby too often I see a closed shop of like minds. The panel which selected Foster consisted of Brent Impey, Mark Robinson, Mike Anthony, Graham Henry and Waimarama Taumaunu. Four-fifths of the panel were white males over the age of 45 who are embedded in New Zealand Rugby.
And I am afraid the appointment of Taumaunu, in that context, looks like tokenism. Hey, let’s get a Maori woman from outside rugby to sit on the panel as well. She’ll tick all the other boxes. It would be interesting to know what percentage of time each voice was heard from during the discussion.
When he was appointed Foster said: ‘‘I’m extremely passionate about adding a new touch to it and to get some mana back on the field which we felt we’ve lost a little.’’
Sorry, bro, but where’s the mana? Don’t make Sonny Bill laugh. If the coaching group of Foster, Brad Mooar, John Plumtree, Greg Feek and Scott McLeod is confirmed, then it’s more white bread. Plumtree has considerable overseas experience and is married to a South African, but the projected coaching group desperately lacks diversity in terms of age, ethnicity, gender and specialisation.
The opposite is true of the coaching group that turned South Africa from a shambles into World Cup winners. Rassie Erasmus served in the army with Jacques Nienaber who is a former physio. Matthew Proudfoot is a former Scotland international married to an international netballer. Mzwandile Stick is black,
35-years-old, and a former captain of the sevens team. Felix Jones is 32 and a former Ireland fullback who worked with Joe Schmidt.
It is clearly a more diverse group, something that was also true of England and Japan, two of the other success stories of the World Cup. (Four years earlier England had lacked diversity and failed miserably at their own World Cup).
South Africa also incorporated youth into its coaching group. It is one more perspective that Syed touches on in his book. Certain modern companies have brought in shadow boards of young people. Gucci was one such company and it grew 136 per cent from
2014-17. In the same period Prada diminished by 11.5 per cent.
So is it any wonder that many in the country are worried about the new Foster parent of the All Blacks. He has to defy his own history and he is promising to do it with a method that modern business and research has proved to be inferior. That’s a hell of a lot to put on the players, however great some of them are.
But we genuinely wish the new coach all the luck in the world, because he will need it.