There’s no need to panic over the ‘devil virus’

I’ve been schooling myself up on the new coronavirus this week. I haven’t really been paying that much attention, partly because it seems any panic is unjustified and New Zealand is a long way from the action.

But perhaps I should be worried. Born with low immunity, allergies and asthma, I’ve caught just about every virus known to the human race. In recent years, however, when I have descended into the most unfit and unhealthy state I have ever been in, I have rarely been sick. I sometimes think my increased consumption of liquor, especially red wine, and putting on weight, have been effective in fighting off viral and bacterial infections. That’s probably confusing correlation with causation.

It took me a while to realise the latest coronavirus, initially called novel coronavirus, is new, as in brand spanking new. The name also puzzled. I’ve always associated corona with the beer brand. Why give a virus such a beautiful name? Chinese President Xi Jinping is onto something when he refers to the virus as a ‘‘devil virus’’. Anyway, people have settled on 2019-nCoV which reads like a computer password.

The main thing I want to know is just how much I need to worry. We are a long way from the centre of the virus in Wuhan, where most of the 25,000 infected people live, and I’m confident our authorities are on top of it. This confidence dropped a bit when I read about a flight from China to Auckland where the passengers simply walked away from the airport without being checked. At 61, I’m in the virus’ target market. About 80 per cent of those who have died were over the age of 60, although 75 per cent of them had preexisting health conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

We also know the proportion of people infected with 2019-nCoV who have died is about 2 per cent. However, this is based on the number of reported infections. The real number could be much higher than 25,000, which would bring down the percentage a lot.

By way of comparison the seasonal flu kills fewer than 1 per cent of those it infects. That equates to the population of Christchurch dying worldwide each year from flu. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed 2.5 per cent of those infected and Sars, which spread in China in 2003 and killed about 800 people, had a mortality rate of about 10 per cent. Although China has taken some fairly desperate and drastic steps to contain the virus, the experts say we shouldn’t be too worried.

Auckland University vaccinologist Dr Helen Petousis-Harris makes the point that the difference between 2019-nCoV and previous global infections is the unprecedented ability to ‘‘literally watch the birth of a new human infection in real time’’.

The plethora of information available, she says, is a mixed blessing because misinformation is harder to spot, leading to confusion and stigmatisation.

Her central message is that the risk of contracting the illness is very low and most people who get it will probably not get very sick. With the good healthcare available in New Zealand, the risk of dying is extremely low. Poorer countries – think Samoa and the measles outbreak – are in a much more vulnerable position.

One thing that puzzles me is how the virus spreads. Surely you can catch the illness from people who have it. Apparently the flu and the four other coronaviruses that cause the common cold can be spread by people who don’t have any symptoms but, despite earlier reports that 2019-nCoV also had this trait, it’s now said it probably doesn’t.

Advisories put out by our Ministry of Health say we don’t know yet how 2019-nCoV is spread, ‘‘but there is evidence that it can spread between people’’.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) says it causes respiratory disease and can be transmitted from person to person, usually after close contact with an infected patient, for example, in a household, workplace or healthcare centre.

The droplets carrying the virus are said to fall to the ground pretty quickly, unlike pathogens such as measles and tuberculosis that can travel 30 metres or so. The take home message is to stand clear of people with colds.

I also keep hearing that face masks are not effective in preventing infection.

Again, the WHO seems to be taking a different line to our ministry. It suggests they can be useful and is sending 500,000 masks and 40,000 respirators to 24 countries. Another area of uncertainty is how much the world’s economy will suffer. According to the authoritative Economist magazine, China generates 16 per cent of global GDP. With the whole province of Hubei, which has a population equal to that of Italy, shut down, and stoppages and cancellations all over China, businesses around the world will be affected.

Some may not see this as a problem because as we now know, growth is bad.

They might cite the statistic that China supplies 90 per cent of the world’s plastic flowers. However, China also, according to the Economist, supplies 80 per cent of active ingredients for all medicines.

New Zealand tourism is already taking a hit and infections found on cruise liners suggest things are going to get worse.

But coming back to the question of worry. Although some pockets will be hurt, it appears 2019-nCoV will spread in the short term but fizzle out and become just another cold virus that will make life miserable for a short time.

In the meantime I’m sticking with my red wine theory.