Front could end big dry

Forecast rain could break one of the longest summer dry spells the Waikato region has recorded in the past decade.

MetService meteorologists say there’s an ‘‘optimistic’’ chance of

10mm-15mm of rainfall covering Waikato and Bay of Plenty on Saturday.

Southern parts of the Waikato have the best chance of seeing the rainfall on the weekend.

Meteorologist Stephen Glassey said just 9.4mm of rain was recorded for the Waikato for the entire month of January.

‘‘That’s very low and the 18th of January was the last day more than

1mm of rain was recorded across several weather stations in the Waikato.

‘‘This would certainly be one of the longest periods of dry weather the Waikato has experienced in the past

10 years, it’s very unusual.’’ There was ‘‘a good dumping of rain’’ from December 17-20, when

30mm of rain fell across those four days.

‘‘But since then, there’s only been

11.4mm of rain in two months.’’ Glassey said it was difficult to say whether our summers are becoming drier for longer.

‘‘Last summer was quite dry too but the two summers before were wetter than average.

‘‘All it takes is one ex-tropical cyclone to come over the North Island and produce large amounts of rain.

‘‘So far we haven’t had any of those tropical storms, just one that came down off the west of the South Island, which didn’t really need it.’’

Meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said a frontal system is expected to move over the North

Island on Saturday, producing rain for Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Eastern Bay of Plenty.

‘‘We expect the cold front to move through and then by Sunday, it will be back to dry conditions once again.’’

Light westerlies and scattered showers teased much of the Waikato yesterday.

The MetService forecast showed no rain on the radar for today with temperatures expected in the upper 20C mark tomorrow.

‘‘Maybe even touching the 30C mark in some places, such as Hamilton, it’s going to be quite a hot day in the Waikato on Friday,’’ Makgabutlane said.

Waikato farmer John Glenn said longer periods of rain are needed to be a ‘‘drought-breaker’’ for the region.

‘‘To be honest, we really need some good rain all week, then some more next week.

‘‘Having a little bit of rain on Saturday could create a whole lot of other problems, like facial eczema, problems we could do without.’’

Sudden rain also causes extra run-off because the ground is so hard.

Gentle rain over a long period is the ideal forecast situation for farmers.