Fuel-driven cars gone by 2050?

Fuel-burning cars and vans could be banned from New Zealand roads by 2050, with imports ending in 2035, under options being considered by the Government.

Higher parking fees, congestion charges and road pricing are among other ideas floated in proposals to make the transport sector net carbon zero by 2050.

The Government forecasts emissions from transport to continue rising until at least 2025 and to decline from 2030 – the year by which Auckland and other cities aim to halve overall carbon emissions.

‘‘The transport sector currently produces 47 per cent of New Zealand’s CO2 emissions, and between 1990 and 2018 domestic transport emissions increased by 90 per cent,’’ said Minister of Transport Michael Wood. Proposals range across how to reshape urban areas, how to shift people out of car travel, and how to make the freight sector less polluting.

Wood characterised the proposals as starting a ‘‘robust national conversation’’.

‘‘We won’t reach total consensus but I am calling for a mature conversation, with an eye on a shared future,’’ he said.

A report by officials noted that it could take decades for light vehicles to be completely replaced. That poses the challenge of preventing New Zealand from becoming a dumping ground for petrol and dieselburning vehicles, as other countries also move to ban them.

‘‘The pathways laid out in the report show it is possible to meet our emission reduction targets but big changes will be needed in the coming decades,’’ said Wood.

‘‘There will be some hard choices but we can’t continue with business as usual.’’

Wood said while statutory long-term transport plans continued to be finalised, such as Auckland’s Regional Land Transport Plan, those decisions could change.

‘‘Those have to work their way through but [the green paper] points to the need to accelerate the change of investments we are making,’’ he said.

None of the ideas are yet government policy and the background report by

‘‘Big changes will be needed in the coming decades.’’

Michael Wood

Transport Minister

officials does not cost any of them.

Officials have modelled four different ‘‘pathways’’ with different mixes of approaches. On the most ambitious ‘‘pathway’’, travel using light vehicles would fall by 57 per cent in 2035, 27 per cent of the light vehicle fleet would be electric or battery powered, and there would be 6.2 megatonnes less carbon produced annually.

That change still falls slightly short of the target set by the Climate Change Commission, which foresaw a 6.8 megatonne cut in carbon dioxide emissions.

The scale of change required in that pathway can be seen in a forecast that public transport patronage would need to be at a level requiring nearly a nine-fold increase in the size of the bus fleet.

Away from the nature of the vehicle fleet and how it is used, are proposals to make urban development more compact, with mixed-use developments – homes and businesses – to reduce the need for travel and the distances that might have to be travelled. The faster development of cycleways and making walking more attractive is also in the mix but officials noted that urban changes are long-term and can occur over a 10 to 30-year period.

‘‘When it comes to addressing the climate crisis, cutting emissions from transport will be vital,’’ said the Minister of Climate Change James Shaw.

‘‘But if we make smart decisions now, then we can create a low carbon future for transport and put our communities on the path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.’’

Options including making heavy trucks cleaner and greater use of cleaner rail networks are among the ideas. The range of ideas is out for public consultation until June 25, with transport to be part of the Government’s emissions reduction plan by the end of the year.