Labor leads polling at the campaign’s halfway mark
Voters have cut their support for the Coalition from 35 to 33 per cent and marked down Prime Minister Scott Morrison on his personal performance, giving Labor a strong lead at the halfway point in the federal election campaign.
Labor has held its primary vote steady at 34 per cent over the past two weeks and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has narrowed the gap with Morrison as preferred prime minister after disputes on the economy, security and climate change.
The exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, also shows the Greens increased their primary vote from 11 to 15% while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party rose from 4 to 5% each.
When voters were asked to name the parties that would receive their preferences, the results showed Labor held a clear lead of 54 to 46% over the Coalition in two-party terms. When the two-party vote is calculated using historical preference flow from the last election, the result is also 54 to 46%, indicating a powerful advantage that could sweep the party into power at the May 21 election.
‘‘Over three-quarters of the electorate are now absolutely committed to their vote, and we’re increasingly seeing people locking in as early voting nears,’’ Resolve director Jim Reed said.
‘‘When you’re a hundred metres ahead of your opponent halfway through a marathon there’s no guarantee of victory, but when you’re nearing the finishing line that gap becomes a lot more difficult to close in time.’’
The findings in the latest Resolve Political Monitor show a recovery for Labor from the survey two weeks ago, when the party suffered a fall in its primary vote from 38 to 34% amid criticism of Albanese when he could not name the unemployment rate on the opening day of the campaign.
Labor has not regained the primary vote it lost in the opening stage of the campaign but could benefit in two-party terms from the stronger support for the Greens, given a declaration by Greens leader Adam Bandt on Saturday that voters should give Labor their preferences.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1408 eligible voters from
Tuesday to Saturday, a period when the campaign was dominated by questions over the Chinese pact with Solomon Islands and inflation results that heightened the contest on economic management.
The survey also covered the period Albanese spent in isolation with Covid-19 while Labor frontbenchers outlined a tax crackdown on multinational corporations and defended their climate change policy against government claims it would be a ‘‘carbon tax’’ that hurt coal miners.
The margin of error for the national results was 2.6 percentage points.
‘‘This election is likely to see the growth of minor party votes continue, especially as most seats now have candidates running for the Greens, One Nation, United Australia, the Liberal Democrats and as independents,’’ Reed said.
The gains for Labor in twoparty terms were outside the margin of error when the calculation is made on stated preferences, with Labor increasing from 51 to 54% from the survey two weeks ago, while the Coalition slipped from 49 to 46%.
Morrison leads Albanese as preferred prime minister by 39 to 33% compared to a wider margin of 38 to 30% two weeks ago.
Asked about Morrison’s performance, 42% of voters said he was doing a good job and 51% said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of minus 9 points. This was a significant deterioration on his net rating of minus 4 points two weeks ago.
Asked about Albanese, 37% said he was doing a good job and 48% said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 11 points. This was a fall from his previous rating of minus 10 points.
This means both leaders are generating similar responses in terms of overall satisfaction with their performances after Morrison held a lead on these measures last year. –