Putin ‘ready for long war’
Russian President Vladimir Putin is digging in for a long conflict in Ukraine and could resort to using nuclear weapons if he believes he is losing the war, a top United States intelligence official has warned.
The Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, told the US Senate armed services committee that the next phase of Russia’s invasion remained uncertain and was likely to become ‘‘more unpredictable and escalatory’’.
Putin could turn to ‘‘tactical’’ nuclear weapons – ones used over relatively short distances – if he perceived an existential threat to his regime or to Russia, Haines said.
‘‘We do think that [Putin’s perception of an existential threat] could be the case in the event that he perceives that he is losing the war in Ukraine, and that Nato in effect is either intervening or about to intervene.’’
Haines, who oversees the entire American intelligence community, including the CIA and National Security Agency, also told the committee that Putin was preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and still intended to grab territory beyond the eastern Donbas region.
US intelligence believes that Putin’s decision to concentrate Russian forces in Donbas is ‘‘only a temporary shift’’ after their failure to capture the capital Kyiv in the north. Russian forces still intended to win territory across the Black Sea coast, in part to secure water resources for Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014, Haines said.
‘‘We . . . see indications that the Russian military wants to extend the land bridge to Transnistria,’’ she said, referring to the Moscowbacked separatist region of Moldova, along Ukraine’s southwestern border.
However, she said the Russian force was not large enough or strong enough to capture and hold all that territory without a more general mobilisation of troops and resources from Russian society.
Putin ‘‘faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities’’, she said. That ‘‘likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory’’.
Scott Berrier, director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency, told the same hearing that the Russians and the Ukrainians were ‘‘at a bit of a stalemate’’. This could change if Moscow formally declared war and ordered a general military mobilisation to boost the size of its forces.
■ Finland’s president and prime minister say they are in favour of applying for Nato membership, paving the way for the alliance to expand amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The dramatic move was announced by President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin in a joint statement last night. It means that Finland is virtually certain to seek Nato membership, though a few steps remain before the application process can begin. Neighbouring Sweden is expected to decide on joining Nato in coming days.
The Kremlin has warned of ‘‘military and political repercussions’’ if Sweden and Finland decide to abandon their historic, decades-old neutrality and join the 30-member alliance. Britain has already pledged to come to the aid of both countries if they come under attack.