Why the election is now National’s to lose

Politics is driven by political parties, personalities, leaders and policies. But more than anything else it is driven by events. When Bill Clinton’s adviser James Carville said ‘‘it’s the economy, stupid’’ in 1992 – initially just to campaign workers – the phrase went down in political folklore, precisely because it so pithily summed up what, in the end, matters to most voters, most of the time.

And events are now occurring thick and fast: there is inflation, which is pinching household and business budgets. There are shortages, especially of building materials that are threatening the stability of parts of the sector, and now a spate of shootings in Auckland and elsewhere. Interest rates are on the way up, house prices on the way down. It is harder to get credit. And supermarket and petrol bills are hurting.

The Government won the Covid war, but dealing with the disrupted and expensive peace is now proving a challenge.

The irony is that traditional headline figures are strong: unemployment is very low, economic growth is healthy enough, terms of trade (the prices New Zealand receives for exports) are strong. But for most wage and salary earners, inflation running at just shy of 7% is stronger.

These have been dog years for the Government.

The effect of Covid has meant that the prime minister and her top line of ministers have had far more exposure to the public than would have usually been the case after five years in office. That was important during the early days of the pandemic, but is much more difficult coming out of it.

While simplistic and not the full picture, it does feel like this Government is much older than its years. Courtesy of Covid and lockdowns, it has also been intimately involved in people’s lives in a way no other government in New Zealand probably has been.

If you step back for a moment, it is difficult to realise just how much Omicron has been normalised and the world has now moved on. On Thursday, seven people died with Covid-19.

Once that many reported cases would have sent shivers down spines.

While every death is a tragedy, it is clear the country has, to a reasonable degree, moved on.

The politics of all of this will be extremely challenging for the Government over the next few months.

Unusually, most political polls show that both major parties are roughly polling in the high 30s, with ACT and the Greens both towards 10 per cent. This suggests the electorate is a little more polarised than is usual.

On most polls the result is tight, with the Mā ori Party often the kingmaker.

But given the particular issues swirling around, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that, as of today, the election is now the National Party’s, or the NationalACT centre-right bloc’s, to lose.

Not because of an outstanding performance by Christopher Luxon and the rebranding of National – although it has been solid and mostly error-free – but because some issues are simply bigger than any one government’s ability to handle them.

In the recent Australian election loss of Scott Morrison, a number of factors were at play.

Lots of people hadn’t forgiven him for going to Hawaii during the bushfires, and inaction on climate change finally tipped over into an election-winning issue, but there was also the dead weight of incumbency.

People were simply sick of Morrison. Australia’s response to Covid had been similarly successful to New Zealand’s, with a similar policy suite deployed, less the harder-edged level 4 lockdowns. But inflation was rising, shortages were biting and the phone from a similarly overexposed Morrison to voters seemed to be off the hook.

So far, Luxon’s timing as leader has been prescient. When elected in November – along with then finance spokesperson Simon Bridges – he identified the cost of living as the key issue. It has been pursued with vigour and mostly in a disciplined manner. But, crucially, the political strategy aligned with people’s lived reality.

Careful calibration also ensued over the spate of gun crimes and shootings, Luxon taking the line that Police Minister Poto Williams should be replaced while stressing it isn’t personal and she could be good at other jobs. In an interview earlier this week he even used a version of the old Tony Blair line: tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime.

However, Luxon’s surge should not be overstated. And his political skills still feel learned, rather than instinctive.

The election is a long way away and though he has resurrected National’s vote to the 40% range, the question is whether he has the extra gears to grab another 4% to 6% of the vote and really bite into Labour’s electoral muscle.

Inflation and shootings – should both continue to surge – would on their own probably be enough to lose most governments most elections. Keeping the peace and public safety, and price stability are basic functions of government – although responsibility for the latter rests with the Reserve Bank.

Labour has very reasonably pointed out that gun crime has been the result of a crime wave exported from Australia, and that inflation is a global phenomenon. Both true.

But the problem is that, with a grumpy electorate, Labour might still have been blamed for it. Or voters, keen to put the pain of the past couple of years behind them, might also do that by changing the government.

The prime minister’s recent successful trip to the United States, including the White House, was a reminder that Jacinda Ardern does have extra gears when she needs them. Free from being bogged down by Covid and the grinding tiredness and domestic focus of the past couple of years, she was open, expansive, impressive and seemed to rediscover her much-vaunted communication skills.

Being out of the country more – and she will be this year – will also probably help Ardern, not only because it elevates the prime ministership out of day-to-day domestic policy squabbles, but also because it cuts down the risk of further over-exposure.

However, in order to right the ship, Labour will have to make a few key moves and quite quickly.

The first is the Cabinet reshuffle, which is expected in the next few weeks. A new police minister is a must, as well as most probably moving Nanaia Mahuta out of local government to try to reset the

Three Waters debate to what it is at heart: an infrastructure overhaul.

Then there’s the question of whether a way will be found to move on Speaker Trevor Mallard, who has become a weird sort of lightning rod for dissatisfaction with the Government.

The front bench also needs a more general refresh. The same faces have been on TV too much. The Government needs a fresher feel and new direction.

The economic story it is telling will also need to sharpen over the coming months.

But there can be little doubt that National could barely hope to be in a better position, considering where the party was at the start of last November. The times suit what many voters consider its traditional strengths (whether that is fair or not): economic management and law and order.

The question is whether the momentum can be sustained and whether Luxon, finance spokesperson Nicola Willis and the surrounding team can go to that next level to drive National consistently into the mid-40s.

Remembering all the while that, as much as current events favour National, events and the political environment can always change.

The other thing that National forgets at its peril is that while she has fallen from the stratospheric heights of 2020, Ardern is still popular, a formidable campaigner and still Labour’s best chance at re-election.