Where selection isn’t all black or white
All Blacks coach Ian Foster is about to show his hand.
The first squad of the year will show how the All Blacks want to play, with back-to-back losses against Ireland and France still fresh in their minds.
Stuff rugby writers Marc Hinton, Richard Knowler and Paul Cully take a look at four key areas, and offer their thoughts on who Foster will – or should – pick in his squad.
The No 12 jersey Marc Hinton:
This might be the most interesting spot in Foster’s entire squad. Will they continue the Jordie Barrett experiment at test level? Is there room to fast-track Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s rapid development in his first year of professional rugby? What about the sizzling form of 2021 rookie Quinn Tupaea? My gut feel is Foster will push Barrett back to fullback, which would mean Will Jordan reverting to the right wing. A power midfield of Barrett and Rieko Ioane (a laydown choice as starting centre) is intriguing, but unlikely to be unleashed against the Irish.
Midfield is competitive, with Tupaea, Tuivasa-Sheck, Jack Goodhue, David Havili and Braydon Ennor all in the mix for probably three spots. Tupaea has to be there on form, Tuivasa-Sheck will be a project and Goodhue is a cert. That could see Havili miss out, unless there’s room for an extra. Starting 12? Goodhue’s experience in a close call.
There are compelling reasons to start Goodhue at second five-eighth alongside in-form centre Ioane. With Anton Lienert-Brown unavailable (shoulder), Havili, Tuivasa-Sheck and Tupaea can be added alongside Goodhue and Ioane. Barrett, who played often played No 12 for the Hurricanes, is best left at fullback at this time.
Although Goodhue began his All Blacks career at No 13, he has started five of his 18 tests at secondfive, and rarely goes missing on defence. Clinical decision-making, and accuracy, is vital in this area. Goodhue does that. Ioane would also welcome his insight and knowledge when the traffic is heavy.
Blues midfielder Tuivasa-Sheck will be there. He has shown enough to suggest he can add something to the squad with his ability and character, and he has the footwork and pace to suggest he could cover several positions.
However, Tupaea must be the frontrunner to start against Ireland. He’s obviously very direct, and it’s hard to see how any side can compete in test rugby these days without a midfielder who can bash
Richard Knowler: Paul Cully:
their way over the gainline. Havili could be the odd man out if Jack Goodhue is selected to cover No 12 and No 13.
Outside backs MH:
There are four certainties in Barrett, Jordan, Caleb Clarke and Sevu Reece. They will be the starting back-three contenders. After that it gets interesting for maybe two spots. I’d make room for Leicester Fainga’anuku as an X-factor type who can play wing or centre, which leaves George Bridge, Mark Telea and Etene Nanai-Seturo as chief contenders for a sixth spot. Telea has appeal, but might need a big finals run to make the step up.
Reward the uncapped Fainga’anuku for starters. Then add Barrett, Jordan, Reece and Clarke. Crusaders wing Fainga’anuku was unfortunate to miss the cut last year, which was a mistake. Get him in the squad, now, and make him a project ahead of the World Cup.
RK:
Fainga’anuku can also play centre. Another plus. Jordie Barrett, given his form last year, deserves to start at fullback.
Jordan’s ability to take the high ball means he could fill the right wing spot, with Fainga’anuku on the other flank. Damian McKenzie, having returned from Japan, can be on standby while doing his thing in the club footy scene.
For the July tests last year, the All Blacks named five outside backs – including McKenzie. On that basis, I’m including Blues fullback/No 10 Stephen Perofeta in this group: he has played his way in.
The others will be Barrett, Clarke, Reece and Jordan: that quartet picks itself. If they pick Fainga’anuku as a midfielder – a genuine option – he can cover No 11,
PC:
as can Rieko Ioane. Bridge misses out, but there is a lot of quality in the back three.
Loose forwards MH:
I have eight contenders for maximum seven spots. Ardie Savea is the best loosie on the planet, Sam Cane and Dalton Papalii are in covering No 7 (the Blues skip is the form man, no doubt) and Akira
Ioane has found his A-game quickly after a late start. You have to think Luke Jacobson is retained with his versatility. Then it’s Pita Gus Sowakula, Cullen Grace and Hoskins Sotutu (all 8s) contending for one, maybe two spots. This could be close. Sowakula intrigues with his upside and point of difference, while Sotutu has excelled in the rampaging Blues and has two years already invested in him.
Openside flanker Cane had a wretched 2021 because of injury. In 2020 he was outstanding. Keep him at No 7. With Ethan Blackadder gone for the season (shoulder injury) and Shannon Frizell only recently returning from a knee problem, the net must be cast wider.
Ioane, Jacobson, Tom Robinson, Papalii, Savea and Sotutu should join the roster. The uncapped Robinson deserves a call-up. At 1.98m the blindside flanker could provide cover at lock. Grace, who has been in good form for the
RK:
Crusaders, and are among the unlucky ones.
The picture has been clouded a touch by the injury to Blackadder and Papalii’s appendicitis, which may have opened the door for one or two on the fringes. The All Blacks carried seven loosies in July last year, so an established septet of Cane, Frizell, Ioane, Jacobson, Papalii, Savea and Sotutu would not surprise. However, the two players I’d like to see included are Robinson as a No 6/lock, and Sowakula – potentially for the underdone Frizell and Jacobson, who may not be needed if Papalii is fit. The All Blacks need genuine punch in that No 6/No 8 area, with Marino Mikaele-Tu’u another good option as the season progresses.
PC: Locks MH:
Have any of the younger brigade played well enough to unseat incumbents? Doubtful, though the selection of starters is when it could get interesting. Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett will be retained, the impressive Tupou Vaa’i too, and it might come down to Josh Lord or Naitoa Ah Kuoi for a fifth spot (the Chiefs went for the latter on their bench for the semi). Tom Robinson is bolter material with his utility value, but might be too under-sized for test footy at lock. I like Retallick and Vaa’i as starters.
Veterans Whitelock and Retallick can’t be rejected. Winning lineout ball in tests is paramount and their knowledge and skills will be vital against the Irish in July. Scott Barrett is also a certainty. Retallick’s Chiefs team-mates Lord and Vaa’i should also be retained.
The more exposure Lord and Vaa’i get ahead of the World Cup, the better. The biggest worry ahead of the global tournament is whether Whitelock and Retallick can hang on. Whitelock’s finger injury, which forced him to miss a block of games for the Crusaders mid-season, could be a worry in the short-term. Patrick Tuipulotu, having avoided Super Rugby Pacific to play in Japan, should be a back-up option in case of injuries.
An area of concern. Where is the grunt if Retallick gets injured again? As a result, the 36-man squad could persuade the All Blacks to name five locks with one eye on France next year. Retallick, Vaa’i, Barrett and Whitelock are likely to be the top four, and it would make sense to continue the Lord project.
On form alone, Josh Dickson – the leading New Zealand lineout winner – and Luke Romano would be in contention, but Dickson should at least get the chance to push his claims with selection in the Mā ori All Blacks. Tuipulotu is the next cab off the rank after returning from Japan.