Gaza war creates risk of ‘generational impact on terrorism’

The top US intelligence official has warned that the war in Gaza could embolden terrorist groups, which are aligned in their opposition to the United States for its support of Israel.

“The crisis has galvanised violence by a range of actors around the world. And while it is too early to tell, it is likely that the Gaza conflict will have a generational impact on terrorism,” Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told an annual hearing on global security threats.

The October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas has inspired fresh threats to the United States by al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated groups, Haines said, while Iranian-backed militant groups have used “the conflict as an opportunity to pursue their own agenda” against the United States. “And we have seen how it is inspiring individuals to conduct acts of antisemitism and Islamophobic terror worldwide,” she added.

US officials say more than 30,000 people have been killed in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Israel had killed approximately 13,000 Palestinian fighters, a claim that could not be independently verified.

The hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee is the rare occasion when the top leaders of the major US intelligence agencies testify in an open hearing about a range of global challenges and hotspots.

“The Gaza conflict is posing a challenge to many key Arab partners, who face public sentiment against Israel and the United States for the death and destruction in Gaza, but also see the United States as the power broker best positioned to deter further aggression and end the conflict before it spreads deeper into the region,” the report stated.

CIA Director William J. Burns updated lawmakers on negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, which would be accompanied by an influx of humanitarian aid and the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton (Arkansas), a stalwart backer of Israel, prodded Burns and Haines to reject critics’ allegations that Israel is “exterminating the Palestinian people” with its military campaign. The officials declined to do so.

“The reality is that there are children who are starving,” Burns said.

The witnesses, who included the directors of the FBI, the National Security Agency, the Defence Intelligence Agency, and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, spoke about a panoply of challenges, from an ambitious China to the proliferation of artificial intelligence and the continuing threat of cyberespionage and warfare. Brett Holmgren, the State Department’s top intelligence official, said that the power of AI could “lower the barrier” for US adversaries to engage in election interference.

Burns minced no words on the importance of US assistance to Ukraine, which is currently stalled amid a divisive debate on Capitol Hill.

With a steady supply of US-provided military equipment, “Ukraine can hold its own on the front line from 2024 and into 2025,” Burns said.

Kyiv could continue deep strikes into Russia and also conduct operations against Russia’s naval forces in the Black Sea, putting Ukrainian forces in a position potentially “to regain the offensive initiative” early next year, he added.

But Ukraine faces “a much grimmer future” should that aid not arrive, and would probably “lose significant ground” to Russia, Burns said.

“That would be a massive and historic mistake for the United States,” he said. What’s more, failure to help defend Ukraine would “stoke the ambitions of the Chinese leadership” to make aggressive moves on Taiwan.

“The Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition.

“And we’re running out of time to help them,” Burns said.