May’s legacy: A nation even more divided
Theresa May’s inglorious campaign proves Britain is now just as hopelessly polarised as the US
Theresa May should have played the hand she dealt herself instead of plunging Britain into yet another divisive election. If there is one lesson from her inglorious gamble, it is not to tempt fate by calling a snap election two years before it is due. I confess here that I was among those who were initially electrified by May’s Thatcherite insouciance in calling an election. Particularly when — as the Brexit and Scottish referendums had already proved — the British electorate is clearly polarised. But May proved a disaster on the campaign hustings. She wouldn’t even get into the ring and debate Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories’ lead collapsed and at the time this column was filed, a hung parliament seemed likely. The upshot is that May’s mandate is seriously undermined. Markets are destabilised. All this at a time when the western world is grappling with the uncertainty provoked by a US President who half its population ( again, that polarisation factor) believes to have seriously gone rogue. A President who was openly labelled a liar in a US Senate committee hearing by the former FBI director who he deposed earlier this year.
The upshot of May’s inglorious campaign is to provide proof positive that Britain is just as hopelessly divided as the United States. The pound initially plunged yesterday. While it will strengthen as Britain’s fundamentals remain strong, the renewed uncertainty over Brexit has caused markets to price in an increased political risk factor.
A similar gambit nearly cost Australia’s Malcolm Turnbull his prime ministership.
Turnbull took the leadership crown away from Tony Abbott in a Liberal Party spill in 2015. He called an election the following year and barely scraped back into power with a one- seat majority for the coalition.
May’s own catastrophic gamble has blown up. And with it a pathway to resolving the Brexit talks, which are to cement the terms on which the UK will finally exit the European Union. There is even talk of a possible new referendum on Brexit. This is a disastrous situation.
There will be an impact in New Zealand.
Earlier this year, May announced that New Zealand was a perfect example of the sort of country with which the UK could do a quick bilateral trade deal.
She made this announcement at No 10 Downing Street during Bill English’s first international foray as Prime Minister.
Initial talks were underway. New Zealand had even offered the services of some of its experienced trade negotiators to help the UK re- establish a negotiating arm of its own, which it will need to secure bilateral deals after it finally pulls out of the European Union.
But May was clear nothing could happen until Britain had completed its departure from the EU.
“As two island nations, we know that trade is essential to the prosperity of our countries,” May said. “While the UK remains in the EU we will work together to support an EU- New Zealand trade deal and we will also look to the future and how we can expand our trade and investment partnership . . . Through our new bilateral trade dialogue we will push for greater global trade liberalisation and reform, share expertise and identify ways to strengthen our own trading relationship. And the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, will visit New Zealand in the coming months to launch these important talks.” Not so fast there, Prime Minister. While our own Trade Minister, Todd McClay, held subsequent talks with his counterpart in London, it seems highly unlikely that Fox will come here in the near future. The pair were to hold a joint public event in New Zealand to highlight what McClay has spruiked as “the importance and benefits of open markets to our citizens at a time when the global economy is facing a period of uncertainty”. But Fox said yesterday he “wouldn’t make any assumptions” on May’s future. When asked if May would be forced to resign, Fox told BBC News: “It’s early in the evening and I think we have to wait and see.” This is unlikely to have an effect on negotiations on the New Zealand- EU free trade agreement. EU negotiators have been in Wellington this week working on the services chapter of the deal. But the volatility now besetting the UK and the US means New Zealand’s leaders will have to remain agile and not bank any deals until they are done.