Deals In Heels could be the real deal at Tauranga
punting
The potential for rain today will torpedo a number of runners at Tauranga this afternoon, but Deals In Heels in Race 6 will not be one of them.
The very talented Cambridge mare found herself in a race she couldn’t win at Matamata last start. The equally smart Sleeping Beauty got her way in front and won while Deals In Heels got back consistent with her usual pattern and ran on strongly into third without any chance of getting to the winner.
This race will be run differently and she should be capable of picking up the leaders.
Splurge got back when well fancied in his resuming run at Rotorua and never got into the race. He is high class and it may pay to ignore that run, but he has a job on his hands to give Deals In Heels 6kg. Our King Sway is underrated, can handle it wet and is twice a winner at Tauranga.
It the track gets a drenching Hello M’Lady (No7, R8) will be a good getout plonk in the last. She won by a wide margin in the wet at Hawera two back then found the Rotorua track much too good last time. In the right conditions today she will again be competitive. Wooden Edge (No2) is also very talented in the wet and is unbeaten in two Tauranga appearances. She may have got to the front a few strides too early when just beaten at Te Rapa last start. The wide barrier should not be too much of a disadvantage if it’s wet.
The following tips are on the basis the track will downgrade. Aquilo (No1, R1) resumes from a decent break, but has had two barrier trials to prepare for this. His ability in the rain showed up when he ran 1.19 for 1230m at Rotorua in April and either way his class should shine through. Power Dream (No5) looked destined for better when she won here by a margin last time at only her second time to the races. That was on better footing than she is likely to strike here, but she won a Te Teko barrier trial in the heavy before her debut.
Race 2 is tough with little exposed form among the maidens. Moses (No2) did reasonably well to be not far away from the placegetters after leading at Ruakaka when resuming. His third on the heavy in an Avondale barrier trial showed he could at least manage the rain. Mount Midoriyama (No3) has experience on most of these and the beautifully bred Mongolian General (No4) needs watching.
Ivy’s Court (No2, R3) had a flashing red light between her ears when she finished fourth at Taupo on debut after sitting wide throughout. She can clearly handle some give in the ground and should go close under Opie Bosson. Overall, Fortaleza (No1) has been disappointing, but she does not lack ability and a showing here would not surprise. Irish-bred Madrugada (No5) has been placed in her home country and finished second in both her New Zealand trials. Take notes at least.
Savapak’s (No4, R4) third to classy sort Mission Hill at Te Rapa last start earns him favouritism. He has been consistent and should go forward usefully from here. Florence Ivy (No8) and Peso (No1) are musts for multiples.
Race 5 is interesting. Vinevale (No1) will take plenty of beating, but a 4.5kg pull in the handicap will make Ruby Bloom (No3) competitive. She won her last two last preparation and scored in her sole barrier trial recently. Her chances will probably be assisted if the track did not get too bad by this stage, where Vinevale has form in the wet. Red Tsunami (No5) scored at odds at Te Rapa when resuming and although beaten since, comes right into this. She is a winner at Tauranga and claims 3kg here.
Winning the next start off a maiden victory is never easy, but Karisto (No10, R7) looks very promising. He has drawn very wide, but if the track is cut up on the inside by this late stage of the programme, Opie Bosson will turn that into an advantage. Lady Shabeel (No9) won too well at Rotorua to be ignored and Call Me Bob (No3) cannot run a bad race.
The A$1.5m Victoria Derby is always a fascinating race. Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young, who won the classic in 2011 with Sangster, probably hold the key to the race. You need a horse that can hit the final 200m strongly and history tells us only three or four each year are able to do that because, in the main, these are horses just changing over from their 2-yearold days and they have to run a draining 2500m on one of the toughest courses anywhere — Flemington. Busuttin was initially disappointed with the way Main Stage hit the line when third in the Ladbrokes Classic at Caulfield last start, but off the back of terrific training this week has put that behind him. If Main Stage can power through the line like he did in winning the 1800m UCI Stakes on this track two back, he will win. He was the early Derby favourite and has drifted fractionally to be $7, which is great each-way odds. Michael Walker rides. Busuttin rates stablemate Sully (Hugh Bowman) almost on the same level. He too can stay.
The interesting runner is Ocean’s Fourteen, by Ocean Park from top class racemare Ruud Van Slaats. His second to Weather With You in the Geelong Classic was a beaut and with only two previous races behind him, should be improved. Weather With You for the Baker/Forsman team will be right in the party.
Derby Day at Flemington is one of the top four or five world racedays — all nine races at Group level and four Group 1s in a row in the middle of the programme. They are all deep betting affairs and if you can get it right in Melbourne today Christmas will definitely come early.
A decent each way value runner will be former New Zealand-trained mare Shillelagh in Race 8, the Group 1 Kennedy Mile. She makes it tough for herself by being a back runner, but Flemington will help there. On the unsuitable Caulfield last start she came from the tail and flashed into third, clocking the fastest late sectionals in a top field. Joao Moreira could do nothing about being six wide on the bend. She drops from 56.5kg under fixed weight to 52kg and this time has drawn No 2. Against her will be that the track will be pretty firm by the end of the day and she prefers a little give, although her good track form is okay. This is no walkover — former Japanese star Tosen Stardom was huge in winning last start.
Another couple of each way bets are Heavens Above in Race 6, the Myer Classic and Sheidel in Race 3, the Skip Sprint.