Trade war hopes fade

Hopes are already fading that China’s President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump will achieve a breakthrough in their trade war during this weekend’s Group of 20 summit in Argentina.

Trump (pictured) poured cold water on the idea, saying only days before the conference it was “highly unlikely” he’d hold off on a tariffs boost.

Almost a year after Trump initiated tariffs on Chinese imports, Xi isn’t caving — despite a sagging economy and slumping stock market.

With growth slowing, Xi would love to get the trade war out of the way and might offer a minor concession or two to get a deal done. Maybe the two leaders will call a truce or promise renewed negotiations, perhaps even sketch the rough outlines of an agreement. That could cheer US stock investors, at least for a day or two.

But don’t expect Xi to budge on the real meat of the US-China conflict. He won’t significantly widen access to the China market for American companies. He can’t be trusted to stop pilfering US technology. Most of all, Xi won’t reverse his industrial policies aimed at nurturing national champions.

At this point, backers of Trump’s tariffs are probably saying: “Give him more time. The duties are only now starting to pinch.” True, but it doesn’t matter. Xi won’t go begging no matter how many tariffs Washington slaps on exports.

Part of the reason is that tariffs can’t inflict as much pain on China’s US$12 trillion ($17.5t) economy as the White House thinks. And Xi believes the course he has set is the right one.