Telegraph will come down to the wire
All things being equal, Melody Belle wins today’s group one JR & N Berkett Telegraph (1200m) at Trentham. But a horror barrier draw has counted against her and tipped the odds in favour of her rivals.
She remains a dominant $2.20 favourite for the marquee sprint with TAB bookmakers but according to that market, chances are she won’t win.
She’s the best horse in the race, no question, just as Kawi was last year.
The difference is that Kawi raced at a distance short of his best and while that’s probably the same for Melody Belle, last year’s favourite was a group one winner at 2000m.
In the hands of Melody Belle’s rider Jason Waddell, Kawi produced one of the performances of the season in last year’s Telegraph — arguably the best of any beaten runner — in finishing second, unleashing a sizzling 32.33-second final 600m but he just couldn’t reel in $74 upset winner Enzo’s Lad.
It may be no easier for Melody Belle but there’s little doubt Kawi’s defeat would have made Waddell hungrier for success today.
He will need to be on his mettle from the outside draw of 18 and he’s already conceded he will be forced to race wide.
But his aim will be to find cover and to give Melody Belle a trip that will see her not needing to produce a superior performance to the one Kawi gave in defeat last year in order to win. She has already produced arguably the best losing performance of any horse this season in finishing third last start in the group one Railway (1200m) at Ellerslie. It would be a major disappointment if she goes and usurps herself on that front today.
Against her, there’s no standout. Just 17 other horses all trying to win.
Last year’s winner Enzo’s Lad is back, as is 2017 winner Signify. Ferrando will attempt to improve on his third placing last year, while stablemate Gift Of Power is back to her favourite track and her preferred way of going. Her 1:07.46 at Awapuni two starts back is the quickest 1200m performance by any horse in the race.
Aussie raider True Excelsior
finished fourth to Shoals and Secret Agenda in the group one Sangster (1200m) at Morphettville in May and on that performance commands respect, while Hanger, Hiflyer, Bostonian and Livin’ On A Prayer
are all worthy of respect.
The Telegraph is just one of the group ones on a splendid card of racing. The other, the Harcourts Thorndon Mile, looks a beauty. There’s the yardstick recent group winning form of Shadows Cast
(group two Manawatu Challenge Stakes), On The Rocks (group two Rich Hill Mile) and Belle Du Nord
(group two Cal Isuzu Stakes).
But there look to be some decent value bets as well. At her best, Darscape Princess would take a power of beating. With just 53.5kg on her back, she looks a great each-way chance at $7, while Rich Hill Mile runner-up Tiptronic has appeal at $18 after only going down threequarters of a length at Ellerslie. He meets On The Rocks 3kg better this time. At $21, Sultan Of Swing also looks an attractive proposition. He draws far better this time and meets On The Rocks 6kg better after only going down 3½ lengths.
The group three Wellington Cup (3200m) is tough and possibly one to play cautiously. Hank Moody doesn’t win out of turn but his group three Trentham Stakes (2100m) placing last week was sound and he drops to the key 53kg minimum for this and has appeal at $17. Of the undercard races, my favourite Lincoln Raider gets back to Trentham and should take beating in the Douro Cup.