Summer warmth — maybe deluge — here till April: Niwa
Climate scientists predict that our bumper summer will stick around everywhere for at least the next three months.
Niwa’s outlook for February to April forecast above average temperatures for all regions – but with potential for big deluges.
The agency predicted weak, easterly air flows over the period.
There were equal chances of rainfall being near or above normal in the north of the North Island, and west of the South Island and near normal for all other regions.
Niwa warned the Tasman Sea and sub-tropics north of the country might become more active towards autumn, which could increase the risk for heavy rainfall events. But the risk of tropical cyclones to New Zealand remained near normal.
On average, at least one extropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year, bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds.
Later in the year, long-range models indicated the potential reemergence of oceanic El Nino conditions.
“This means that above average sea surface temperatures may persist for more than a year across the equatorial Pacific.”
Coastal waters around the country were already much warmer than average, with marine heatwave conditions likely being reached in the east of the North Island.
For the time being, the continuation of much warmer than average seas could contribute extra warmth, moisture, and invigorate low pressure systems as they approached the country heading into autumn.