Perfect 10: ABs need to build depth
McKenzie won’t be replaced by a first-five at the World Cup — frankly, the contenders are not yet up to standard for test football
The past few weeks of Super Rugby have confirmed the All Blacks won’t be taking three first-fives to the World Cup. There’s a bit of Super Rugby to play out but it’s not going to prove to be enough runway for any of the emerging No 10s’ fledgling careers to take off. That much is apparent in the wake of Damian McKenzie’s season-ending injury.
The All Blacks coaches have probably made up their minds about that. They will keep watching the likes of Josh Ioane, Otere Black and Mitch Hunt, while also hoping that Stephen Perofeta will make it back into action, but it will be as part of a contingency plan.
If either Beauden Barrett or Richie Mo’unga are nobbled between now and the World Cup or at the tournament itself, then the All Blacks are going to need to call up a specialist No 10.
But that’s the only reason this group is being monitored. We are in round 13 of Super Rugby and the gap between Barrett and Mo’unga and every other No 10 looks enormous.
Black was being touted as the lead candidate a month ago but there has been nothing commanding nor convincing about him since he came under scrutiny.
He has been given extended time at the helm and the Blues have regressed. That might just be an unfortunate coincidence but whether the two events are connected or not, the All Blacks will have seen enough to know that Black is not for them.
Brett Cameron, whom the All Blacks took to Japan last year, has managed 87 minutes of Super Rugby in 2019.
It’s hardly enough to adequately judge his ability and yet he has played with such uncertainty that it probably was.
The likes of Hunt and Marty McKenzie have played with their usual passion, commitment and urgency, confirming their value as Super Rugby squad men, for ever ready to jump in and cover others.
The player to push interest levels and probably surge to the front of the chasing pack is Ioane, whose running game is of sufficient quality to see him potentially developing into a test player.
A running game alone is not enough, however, and Ioane still has to prove he can combine all his skills to the extent he could play test rugby.
There is an element of sink or swim about test rugby that provides some sort of basis to say that Ioane is worth the risk.
The coaches have seen over the years how injury has provided opportunity to some players earlier than was considered ideal, and yet for all the public concern they weren’t ready, the likes of Anton LienertBrown and Karl Tu’inukuafe spectacularly exceeded expectation.
But the coaches will feel McKenzie’s injury hasn’t quite forced their hand, as they can tackle a World Cup campaign with two specialist No 10s, while taking a calculated risk they can beat Namibia with one of Jordie Barrett, TJ Perenara or Ryan Crotty in the No 10 jersey.
Ioane will stay at home, his presence in Japan required only in the case of an emergency.
What’s of more interest and concern is thinking beyond the World Cup, as other than Ioane, none of the emerging group of No 10s look like they will be ready to play tests in 2020 either and in some cases, they don’t look like they are going to be ready to play test football at all.
Maybe this doesn’t matter too much. Barrett, still only 27, is expected to commit to New Zealand for another four years and Mo’unga and McKenzie are younger and have also committed for the long haul.
It seems silly to fret about the future when there are three worldclass playmakers in the ranks, but history has shown how quickly a fertile landscape can become barren.
First-five is a red flag position, where typically smaller athletes are required to tackle significantly bigger men, usually head-on. People who wear No 10 tend to break easily as a result.
With Barrett expected to take an extended playing break as part of his new deal, an injury to either Mo’unga or McKenzie will leave the All Blacks scrambling at No 10 and back somewhere they have tried so hard not to be.
The injury dramas at the 2011 World Cup exposed how reliant the All Blacks were on Dan Carter at that time.
When Steve Hansen took over as head coach, one of his primary goals was to broaden the talent pool at No 10.
It wasn’t just the attrition connected with the position that drove this desire to have more options, it was also the need to have
Other than Ioane, none of the emerging group of No 10s look like they will be ready to play tests in 2020 either or play test football at all.
tactical variation in a key role.
Carter’s endless run of injuries made it relatively easy for Hansen to develop Aaron Cruden and Barrett between 2012 and 2015, but such was the volume of physical carnage in that period, the likes of Colin Slade, Tom Taylor and Lima Sopoaga also proved they were capable and useful test footballers.
At this stage of the last World Cup cycle, New Zealand was awash with test-quality No 10s. It was a near farce that there ended up being significant doubt as to whether Carter would even make the All Blacks 2015 World Cup squad.
Back then, the competition was such that no one, not even a player as magnificent as Carter, could afford to let their form slip.
Through this current cycle, the All Blacks have seen Barrett jump to a different level, Mo’unga track towards world-class status and McKenzie hint at having what it takes to be a special All Blacks No 10.
But they also lost Cruden and Sopoaga to offshore suitors, which has left them in a good but slightly vulnerable place, as is being felt with the injury to McKenzie.
As greedy, or as unrealistic as it may sound, the All Blacks really need four, if not five, test-capable No 10s at any given time to ride the vagaries of a season and the offshore recruitment market.
They will come into 2020 with three, and depending on when Barrett takes his sabbatical, it could be two.
For whoever replaces Hansen as head coach later this year, developing more options at No 10 will be one of the highest priorities, but other than Ioane, there’s not much confidence at this stage that the raw talent will be there.
It’s tempting to say that the universe has a way of looking after the All Blacks, or at least their player development system does, and to be patient, give the likes of Black, Harry Plummer, Perofeta and Cameron time and they will get there.
Tempting but not foolproof as the universe didn’t look after the All Blacks between 2004 and 2011 when, with the brief relief that came when Nick Evans was around, there was no one other than Carter to pick at No 10.