Hype over high-flyer rather premature

If Bridges’ leadership is challenged before the election, Luxon will be the least of his problems

He may eventually turn out to be the answer . . .

Simon Bridges has no reason to feel directly threatened by Christopher Luxon. Despite the outgoing Air New Zealand chief having been anointed by media as the bright new hope for the National Party, he is no competition for Bridges.

There are several alternative scenarios before Luxon is even a factor.

The reality is that if Bridges beat the odds to win the 2020 election, Luxon would walk straight into a Cabinet position in much the same way that Steven Joyce did in 2008.

Judith Collins would be a senior minister and presumably a settled one.

And if Bridges’ leadership is successfully challenged before the election in the next 18 months, Luxon will be the least of his problems.

The more relevant question is whether the likelihood of Luxon entering Parliament at the end of 2020 could precipitate a move against Bridges this term.

And on that score Bridges may be at greater risk, although only marginally if Collins were to think it through.

The only person who would initiate a challenge against Bridges is Collins. She turned 60 this year. She came into Parliament in 2002, meaning that by next year’s election, she will have had 18 years of parliamentary experience under her belt, three terms in Opposition and three terms in Government.

If Bridges leads National to the next election and it fails, the National Party will have two choices: to go with Collins or togo with a younger generation politician.

Bridges, of course, would not be an option. Luxon would definitely not be an immediate option if he had just joined the caucus. He might be good but he is not that good.

Even Bob Hawke, who had deep roots to the Australian Labor Party, took two years to claim the party’s leadership after being imported to Parliament to replace Bill Hayden.

But could Collins, knowing the

party in Opposition would have more choices after the election, be more inclined to go after the top job this term?

Collins would almost certainly face competition for any bid she made because she would be blamed for contributing to any leadership crisis.

Deputy leader Paula Bennett would almost certainly be a contender.

Collins would likely win, but a toxic response by the rump of Bridges’ supporters would make a Collins leadership this term destined to failure, infighting and bitterness.

The party would be further from the Government benches than under Bridges.

Collins’ chances of winning a leadership contest after the next election might be reduced because the competition, such as Bay of Plenty’s Todd Muller, might be more appealing by then. But if she won, it would not be as toxic and she would have a better chance of leading the party to success.

However, the failure of a Collins leadership part way through next term is the point at which Muller or Luxon could be expected to step up to take the helm.

To that extent, Luxon is more of a threat to the next generation of leading National MPs, Todd Muller, Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis, than to Bridges or Collins.

Besides which, Luxon’s rise may not be rapid. Electorates and MPs don’t always take kindly to the commentariat picking candidates and party leaders, especially ones who are not yet members of the party.

The fact that some media have Luxon already moved into Premier House could count against him in an electorate selection battle — in the same way that former All Black captain David Kirk was rejected by Tamaki when it came to replacing Rob Muldoon.

Botany is earmarked for him. It would suit National to have an outstanding high-flyer against any possibility of a return by Jami-Lee Ross. Whichever way he comes in, by electorate or list, he would be advised to listen and learn for the best part of a term, whether in Government or Opposition.

No one is doubting Luxon’s business leadership skills. It doesn’t translate instantly to politics.

After entering Parliament, John Key had to wait four years to become National leader, then another two to become Prime Minister. Jacinda Ardern waited eight years to become Labour leader, then six weeks to become Prime Minister. The closest thing to any party importing a Prime Minister in recent years was the Michelle Boag-inspired move to shift Don Brash from the Reserve Bank to the Beehive within a term.

It almost worked but there isn’t a National MP close to the top then who isn’t relieved to some degree it didn’t work. The “outsider” label helped Brash get to the inside but once there, it didn’t give him the skills to be a competent political leader. Had he made it to Prime Minister, he could well have been rolled, Rudd-style, by his own Cabinet during the first term.

It has been said so often by some media that Bridges won’t last the distance that they have a vested interest in that outcome for their own credibility.

That may account for some of the media hype over Luxon’s ambition to get into Parliament, properly articulated for the first time this week.

Not only is Luxon not a contender this term, any leadership change in National this term would require a clear trigger — either a gross misjudgment by Bridges or a slump in the polls. That has not happened and might not.

National’s internal polling has the party fairly steady on about 42 per cent, neck and neck with Labour, not the right conditions for a change.

That figure is below 1 News Colmar Brunton’s 44 per cent but well above Newshub Reid Research’s 37.4 per cent this month.

The narrative that Collins has much greater public support than Bridges is, to put it kindly, risible.

Both are overwhelmingly rejected by the public as preferred Prime Minister, Bridges by 95 per cent of voters and Collins by 93 per cent, a two-point differential that is hardly the required trigger for change.

Luxon’s profile is somewhat overstated. He may be well known in business circles, but it has only been this week that he has started getting any serious profile on mass media.

He is impressive. He is accomplished in media relations. He may eventually turn out to be the answer for National.

But it may be some time away yet.