Superstar filly to resume at Awapuni
Jamie Richards says Probabeel should be going very close today
There will be no New Year’s hangover in the quality of horses trainer Jamie Richards takes to Awapuni today.
After a mammoth week of carnival racing at Ellerslie, today feels like the calm after the storm for racing fans, a chance to catch their breath before the next three weekends.
They bring the two premier days at Trentham on the next two Saturdays and then what has become New Zealand’s best race meeting, the Karaka Million at Ellerslie, so the rest of January will be stacked with elite-level racing.
By comparison, today’s offerings at Ruakaka and Awapuni may seem less glamorous. Until you stroll down to race four at Awapuni today.
It may only be a $25,000 threeyear-old race but it contains one of the genuine superstars of New Zealand racing in Probabeel and trainer Richards says she is ready to go.
“Obviously she is here to get ready for the Karaka Classic in three weeks time which is her next big aim,” Richards says.
“But she is very well. She has trialled well and we picked this race out for her a long time ago.
“This is the race Scott Base won a few years ago on his way to winning the Karaka Classic and it looks ideal, the 1400m fresh up, leading into the Mile in three weeks.”
Probabeel hasn’t won a race since overcoming the outside barrier in last season’s Karaka Million and she hasn’t actually raced here since. But there is no doubting she is the real deal, a rare Kiwi galloper good enough to win the highest level group ones in Australia in the 1400m to 1600m range.
She was thwarted by very heavy tracks during her autumn 2-year-old campaign in Sydney but was outstanding there in the spring. Fourth fresh up when she needed the run after preparing on wet tracks here, Probabeel was beaten just a nose by Funstar in the group two Tea Rose at Randwick in September after flying late, lowering the colours of much hyped filly Libertini in the process.
She had to settle for second to Funstar again in the group one Flight Stakes two weeks later after the pattern of the race didn’t suit her but she left Australia with everybody aware she is a class act.
And the good news is Richards’ decision
Obviously she is here to get ready for the Karaka Classic in three weeks’ time.
Jamie Richards
to not press on to the VRC Oaks a month later has helped Probabeel to develop.
“She is actually starting to carry some weight now which is a good thing at the start of a campaign.
“But she is very well and she should be going very close today.
“I know she hasn’t won a race in a while but she has been racing very good horses in Australia.”
That is almost certainly where Probabeel will end up in the autumn again after her Karaka Classic Mile test on January 25.
That race will undoubtedly provide champion jockey Opie Bosson, who rides Probabeel today, with some weight-loss motivation in coming weeks.
Probabeel will be a warm favourite for the Classic but will carry just 54.5kg, right at the lowest limit of what Bosson can ride at.
If Bosson is going to make it down to 54.5kg for any domestic race this season, the Classic Mile will be the one he wants to do it in.
The champion jockey won’t have to work quite so hard to partner stablemate and another Te Akau winner of the Karaka Million in Avantage in her next start.
The high-class mare is heading to the Telegraph at Trentham on January 19 and with the race being weightfor-age now she will carry 57kg.
“She came through her fresh up second (Boxing Day) well and could even have an exhibition gallop here (Matamata) next week to keep her ticking over for the Telegraph,” he said.
Meanwhile, Richards’ juveniles will have their final Karaka Million warm up races at Ellerslie tomorrow week. Cool Aza Beel looks the best of the three the stable are aiming at the race but after the recent juveniles races at the Ellerslie carnival produced a number of high-class performances from Karaka Millioneligible horses, winning a fourth Million in a row is not going to be easy.
Te Akau’s only other runner today is Weaponry in the R82 mile (race five) and the last start winner looks a good each way chance albeit from a wide draw in the small field.