Luck’s a fortune and can be punters’ enemy
Luck can be a punter’s best friend or their worst enemy, and will almost certainly decide today’s $ 200,000 Windsor Park Plate at Hastings.
There are those who will argue luck i s important in any race. But sometimes that isn’t true.
Horses such as Sunline and Might And Power more often than not took bad luck out of the equation, racing up on the speed.
But for normal, garden variety equine stars, luck still matters and it could matter an awful lot in today’s second Group 1 of the season.
There i sn’t much talent- wise between Avantage, Melody Belle, Supera, Two Illicit, Jennifer Eccles and maybe even Prise De Fer, Callsign Mav and Loire. Any of them could win with the right run today, if they can get into a rhythm and be produced at the right time.
But where there will be good luck, there will be bad luck, as when punters got a bleeding nose in the Tarzino t wo weeks ago because Avantage was slow to jump and ended up midfield and wide.
The shortish run to the bend from the 1600m start point at Hastings means hardened warriors such as Shadows Cast and The Mitigator and probably even Tarzino shockmaster Callsign Mav have little choice but to work forward early and that could mean too many class mares trying to fit into too few spots in behind them.
Those without natural early tactical speed such as Two Illicit, Loire and Jennifer Eccles face potentially being squeezed out the back, from where their races could be as good as over.
But if a mare such as Two Illicit or Supera can hold a spot and track favourites Avantage and Melody Belle who are forced to work hard or wide, then the swoopers could get their chance.
Avantage deserves her favouriti sm, even if she was a touch onepaced to the line in the Tarzino, a run suggesting she was looking to today’s 1600m.
Her work has been sharper this week than it was Tarzino week and she beat Melody Belle fair and square when they were paired up on Tuesday, so she is the one to beat but she has to begin more enthusiastically than she did two weeks ago.