White House embraces fringe- science ‘ herd immunity’ declaration
The idea that herd immunity will happen at 10 per cent or 20 per cent is just nonsense.
Dr Christopher Murray University of Washington
The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of fringe scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.
Many experts say “herd immunit y” — the point at which a disease stops spreading because nearly everyone in a population has contracted it — is still very far off. Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that about 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the US population is still susceptible to the coronavirus.
On a call convened on Tuesday by the White House, two senior administration officials, both speaking anonymously because they were not authori sed to give their names, cited an October 4 petition titled The Great Barrington Declaration, which argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools.
“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long- term public health,” the declaration states, adding, “The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.”
The declaration has more than 9000 signatories from all over the world, its website says, although most of the names are not public. The document grew out of a meeting hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarianleaning research organisation.
Its lead authors include Jay Bhattacharya, an economist at Stanford University, the academic home of Dr Scott Atlas, President Donald Trump’s science adviser. Atlas has also espoused herd immunity.
The declaration’s signatories include Sunetra Gupta and Gabriela Gomes, t wo scientists who have proposed that societies may achieve herd immunity when 10 per cent to 20 per cent of their populations have been infected with the virus, an opinion most epidemiologists disagree with and that runs counter to established scientific knowledge.
Last month, at the request of the New York Times, three epidemiological teams calculated the percentage of the United States that is infected. What they found runs strongly counter to the theory being promoted in influential circles that the US has either already achieved herd immunity or is close to doing so, and that the pandemic is all but over.
That conclusion would imply that businesses, schools and restaurants could safely reopen, and that masks and other distancing measures could be abandoned.
“The idea that herd immunity will happen at 10 per cent or 20 per cent is just nonsense,” said Dr Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which produced the epidemic model frequently cited during White House news briefings as the epidemic hit hard in the northern spring.
The move comes amid a coronavirus outbreak at the White House that has grown to more than 20 people, as evidence mounts that the Administration did little to prevent or contain the virus’ spread.
On Wednesday, officials with the Department of Labour said the wife of the secretary, Eugene Scalia, tested positive for the coronavirus that day.
Trish Scalia, who was said to be experiencing “mild symptoms”, and her husband were at a Rose Garden event honouring Judge Amy Coney Barrett that i s being eyed as the source of several infections in people connected to the White House. The secretary tested negative, officials said, but he will work from home “for the time being”.