Johnson stalls as virus surges and Brexit bears down
Analysts say reluctance to move decisively risks making both worse
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has reached a moment of truth on the two issues that have dominated Britain this year: The pandemic and Brexit negotiations with the European Union. But he is still playing for time — a strategy that could put lives or livelihoods at risk if he waits too long.
Yesterday, Johnson inched closer to imposing a second lockdown on the country, moving London to a higher level of restrictions and signalling that he wanted to move Manchester to the highest level, joining Liverpool. But he stuck to his claim that the best way to curb the virus was through targeted responses, not the two- week nationwide lockdown pushed by the opposition Labour Party and his own scientific advisers.
The Prime Minister also seemed ready to string out trade talks with Brussels, letting a self- imposed deadline pass without a deal. While Johnson could torpedo the negotiations today, after a two- day summit meeting of EU leaders, analysts said the British Government still appeared eager to strike an agreement by the legal deadline of December 31.
For Johnson, Brexit and the virus are linked: The economic turmoil unleashed by the pandemic has raised the pressure on him to avoid the self- inflicted disruption of a ruptured negotiation with the EU, and the damaging prospect of beginning the new year without a trade agreement in place.
Yet his reluctance to move decisively on either of them, analysts say, risks making both worse.
Dragging out the talks with Brussels could put
Britain in a bind if the two sides hit an impasse as the clock runs out. Putting off a short lockdown — which experts have dubbed a “circuit breaker” — could vitiate its effectiveness in curbing the virus’ spread and necessitate a longer lockdown later, according to medical experts.
“If you’re going to do it, do it early, fast and hard,” said Devi Sridhar, chairwoman of the global public health programme at the University of Edinburgh. “The longer they delay, the less likely a two- week circuit breaker will work.”
Britain has recorded about 16,000 new coronavirus cases per day, on average, over the past week — the most since the pandemic began, and a tenfold increase in just six weeks. Nearly 800 people were admitted to hospitals yesterday, and 563 patients were on ventilators, raising fears that intensive care units will soon be overwhelmed.
The figures have climbed sharply despite an array of new restrictions adopted after government scientists warned last month that without further action, the caseload could reach 50,000 a day by this point.
While the outbreak has been worst in the north and west of England, there are signs that it is spreading across the country. The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, pressed the Government to raise the city’s status to a high alert level, which prohibits indoor socialising by people from different households, as of Sunday.
But other mayors lashed out against the restrictions. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, rejected the move to elevate his city to the highest- risk tier, which involves closing pubs and gyms. Burnham, who like Khan is a member of the Labour Party, demanded that the Government provide more financial aid to pubs and other businesses that he said would be devastated by the lockdown.
The political consensus that once characterised Britain’s response to the pandemic has now fractured in both parties, however. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, threw his weight behind a temporary lockdown, while Johnson remains at odds not only with members of his party but also with some in his Cabinet: The popular chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, is resisting the push for a lockdown.
“We are effectively burning the furniture to keep warm now,” said Steve Baker, a Conservative lawmaker and one of the leaders of a campaign for Parliament to have a greater say over coronavirus rules. “If we have to continue like that for another three to six months until there is a vaccine, that poses grave risks to the economy.”
Adding to the pressure on Johnson, public- opinion surveys show clear support in the British public for stricter measures, up to and including a “circuit breaker” — though Britons are split about a lengthier lockdown.