Probabeel probably a bit fresh for punters today
She’s New Zealand’s best racehorse but two of the biggest names in the industry say punters should tread carefully when Probabeel resumes in Australia today.
The Kiwi mare starts her campaign, aimed at the $A5 million All-Star Mile at The Valley next month, in a winnable race at Caulfield today, also in Melbourne, for which she is the second favourite.
Even drawn widest of the 11 starters and carrying 60kg Probabeel has a huge class edge on her rivals.
But the 1200m is at least 400m short of her best and what is more concerning for those contemplating backing the multi-Group 1 winner is her first-up record.
Probabeel has been beaten in four of her five starts to begin new campaigns and the one she did win was a hard watch as she came off the bit around the home bend before beating average rivals at Awapuni 13 months ago.
She showed those same don’t-tellme-what-to-do tendencies in her Geelong trials nine days ago and the sprint trips coupled with her natural relaxed nature seem to make her vulnerable when fresh.
Trainer Jamie Richards wasn’t worried by Probabeel’s no-fuss effort at the trials last week and suggest you will see a sharper horse today.
“With the blinkers on and [ jockey] Damian [Lane] giving her some encouragement I am sure she will perk up,” says Richards.
“But yes, it clearly isn’t her grand final and she will improve with it.”
Lane admits the Geelong trial was only okay and he joins in the chorus telling punters to be careful.
“She is a lovely mare but she will settle back and I am sure she will hit the line hard,” Lane said.
“But whether she can win or not, I can’t tip her with any confidence.”
Caulfield can be cruel on those horses settled back and coming wide, especially if the fast lane develops down in the inside which is possible as the rail is back in the true position after being out 9m last week.
For all of Melody Belle’s historymaking feats, Probabeel is probably New Zealand’s best thoroughbred but there are enough things against her to suggest punters shouldn’t pin their hopes today on the wonderful mare in the Cambridge Stud chequers.
She is remarkably one of only two horses Richards has racing today, with Quattro Quinta the favourite but by no means over the line in the Group 3 Woburn Farm Classic at today’s major Taranaki meeting New Plymouth .
He was good without being dominant winning the Wellesley at Trentham over his two key rivals today.
But he does have the benefit of Opie Bosson in the saddle, with New Zealand’s best jockey travelling to New Plymouth on a flying visit for just one ride.