Ardern serves up small beer for Opposition

As their targets disappear, Nats are in danger of fading into irrelevance

It is no reflection on Judith Collins that her first questions to Jacinda Ardern when Parliament resumed this week was about the lack of certainty over when Covid-19 vaccines were going to arrive.

Collins had no way of knowing that Ardern actually had a fair idea of when they were going to arrive and would hold a surprise press conference yesterday to announce the first injection would be next weekend. It’s a massive milestone.

One of the clear targets the Opposition has had on the Government’s Covid-19 management has been the gap between its assurance three months ago that New Zealand would be at the front of the queue for vaccines and their nonappearance — and woolliness about when they would arrive.

That political target has disappeared assuming, as promised by Ardern, that the vaccines begin to arrive next week and are administered competently and fairly.

Yesterday’s announcement was the culmination of an exemplary exercise by the Government in managing expectations, of underpromising and over-delivering.

Covid Minister Chris Hipkins and Ardern have not only downplayed any suggestion the vaccines might come early, they have been critical of those suggesting it might or should happen earlier for border workers at risk of exposure to the UK and South African variants.

They frequently warned against critics indulging in “vaccine nationalism”, pointing out that other countries had a greater need for it.

They have been publicly sceptical about comparison with Australia’s decision to bring forward its vaccination plan by a month. As recently as Wednesday this week in Parliament they noted that Australia’s vaccines had not yet arrived and it had not started vaccinating.

It is, however, almost certain that the advance timetable for New Zealand’s vaccine would not have happened without Australia advancing its own programme.

From Pfizer’s perspective, it made no sense for the New Zealand batch to be part of a different batch to Australia’s. Although the Government has never been willing to acknowledge a link, Scott Morrison’s agreement with Pfizer to start earlier production has allowed New Zealand to benefit as well.

Ardern and Hipkins have been willing to wear the uncertainty, knowing that the announcement of an early vaccine for New Zealand border workers would more than compensate for short-term doubts over their control of the situation.

The original timetable had been for the first courses of vaccines by the end of next month. The news of the advance delivery has reinforced the Government’s competence in handling Covid-19, most recently in the response to community cases originating at the Pullman Hotel.

And there was good news on the economic front this week. Finance Minister Grant Robertson pointed to lower projections of net debt to GDP in 2034 falling from 48 per cent in the pre-election forecasts to 36.5 per cent — amounting to $60 billion less debt.

That is on top of the incredible fact that GDP activity in the September quarter was higher than pre-Covid — which according to BNZ economists is equalled only by China, Taiwan and Ireland — and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 per cent last week. It is what you would call a good start to the year and a great week for the Government and has left Collins with little to say except “congratulations”.

There are a few Covid-19 related issues that National could still prosecute. The Auditor General clearly has concerns about the level of transparency surrounding the massive amounts of money being spent or earmarked in the $62 billion Covid Response and Recovery Fund.

This week the Office of the Auditor issued a second report on the fund — though it is not alleging any impropriety — stating that under the current presentation of information “it would be difficult, if not impossible, for Parliament and the public to track how the Covid-19 funding decisions (by initiative) have been assigned to the various funding authorities”.

And National’s Covid-19 response spokesman, Chris Bishop, is clearly not completely satisfied that Green MP Ricardo Menendez March did not get special treatment from Government officials by landing a room in MIQ , having left for Mexico before Christmas without having booked one.

But compared to the public health issue around a national vaccination campaign, they are small beer.

Ardern declared 2021 the year of the vaccine, which means it must be done with as few problems as possible — not least to make the Opposition as irrelevant as possible.

So far, she is winning.

It is what you would call a good start to the year . . . and has left Collins with little to say except ‘congratulations’.