Finals time!
Super sport weekend
Team balance
One fascination of the World Test Championship final is that the two best test sides in the world embrace profoundly contrasting styles. New Zealand’s success is built on their mastery of test cricket’s boring bits; India play with more enterprise and flair. In many ways, both sides adopt the spirit of their captains, Kane Williamson and Virat Kohli, two modern masters in different ways. There is also a marked difference in the balance of the two attacks. India’s XI will include two spinners and three quicks; New Zealand were weighing a five-man seam attack and selecting Ajaz Patel as the lone spinner.
Playing the moving ball
One of the traits of the Dukes ball is that it swings appreciably more than the Kookaburra. New Zealand’s victory over England at Edgbaston was underpinned by lavish swing. India, however, have become adept at playing the swinging ball. Since 2016, India’s top seven average 37.4 against the swinging ball, the best of any nation. As was the case during the 4-1 defeat in England in 2018, India’s weakness against the moving ball has tended to be against seam rather than swing. Seam determining the fate of the inaugural final — as it did New Zealand’s 2-0 series victory at home to India last year — might offer New Zealand their best chance.
Match-ups
Indian batsmen are generally outstanding against spin, but even if New Zealand select an all-seam attack, it will be a contrasting one. Curiously, all of India’s top six fare better against right-armers than left-armers. Perhaps New Zealand could be minded to whisk Trent Boult out of the attack early. Kyle Jamieson’s height offers an essential point of difference.
India, with both a left-arm spinner and off-spinner, will try to manipulate the bowling to turn the ball away from the bat as much as possible. This could see Ravichandran Ashwin enter the attack early, against New Zealand’s two left-handed openers.
Batting deep
The excellence of both new-ball attacks means early wickets are probable. The final could be decided by which side extracts more runs from their lower-middle order. In Ravindra Jadeja and Ashwin, India have a formidable No 7 and 8 but what follows is less reassuring. If New Zealand select Colin de Grandhomme to balance the side at seven, backed up by Jamieson at eight, they will feel they can match Jadeja and Ashwin’s output.
Conditions
The Ageas Bowl pitch should offer opportunity for batsmen, seamers and spinners alike. But overcast skies and the near-certainty of play being disrupted by showers should encourage New Zealand to pick four specialist seamers. The omens were not good when the first session overnight was lost to rain.