China has numbers, but not the experience

China’s fury over Taiwan has meant tensions are at their highest in years, but it’s unlikely missiles fired will ignite war — for now.

By the numbers, the People’s Liberation Army is impressive — the world’s largest, with two million soldiers.

Xi Jinping, head of the Communist Party and chair of the central military commission, has prioritised bolstering prowess, calling on troops to always be “combat ready”.

But the truth is the military lacks fighting experience beyond a few skirmishes decades ago.

The PLA is a “military that hasn’t actually fought a war, or had this opportunity to practise its missile and joint capabilities since modernising in the last few years,” said Meia Nouwens, a senior fellow on Chinese military and defence for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank.

China’s drills this week are instructive rehearsals in whether the military could operate effectively if push came to shove.

At home, the dazzling firepower allows Xi to bolster nationalism and justify billions spent on defence despite a Covid-ravaged economy.

“To show strength at a time of domestic concern is certainly an added bonus,” said Nouwens.

It also means Xi can shore up his support ahead of a twice-ina-decade party congress this autumn when he’s expected to stay in power for an unprecedented third term.

Intimidating Taiwan becomes the icing on the cake.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory, and the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip was seen as a direct challenge.

But it provided cover for the drills, which done without reason would be far more alarming.

However, the drills could harden anti-mainland sentiment in Taiwan to the point where Beijing could no longer win hearts on the island, leaving force as the only option.