Beijing prefers tractability and trade
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan has opened a door for the world to see the dangers lurking within one of Asia’s geopolitical dispute zones.
China reacted quickly to the stopover by the highest-profile elected US official in 25 years on an island it considers its territory. China wants at some stage to bring Taiwan under its control.
Military exercises were held in six exclusion zones around Taiwan. Ballistic missiles were fired, warships, drones and fighter jets deployed. It all sharply raised the temperature of a potential volcano which normally bubbles along as a background issue.
That doesn’t mean the unresolved tensions and unfulfilled goals between China and Taiwan have to inevitably slide into conflict. After all, there are other strained stalemates in the region, such as between North and South Korea, and India and Pakistan, that are uneasily managed or contained for now.
However, Pelosi’s visit and the days of military drills did dust off the dry theoretical coating from “what if ” scenarios.
Suddenly a potential conflict seemed very real, rather than academic. There was a clear sense of how a potential Beijing takeover of Taipei could play out. And simply using the opportunity of Pelosi’s visit to test its plans makes more such drills likely.
The self-governed island is very close to the massive land mass of China. It could quickly be occupied, surrounded and blockaded by navy ships, and patrolled with air power.
How could any outside intervention on Taiwan’s side avoid entanglement with Chinese forces? And what major country would want a direct confrontation with China now or in the future with the threat of nuclear weapons being involved?
US official policy is to recognise Beijing as the government of one China. The US is legally obliged to help Taiwan defend itself. There is no existing US requirement to send in the marines on the island’s behalf.
According to a Washington thinktank analysis, the navies of the US and Japan could successfully defend Taiwan, but at an “extremely high” cost on all sides with the loss of ships and aircraft. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, considering the potential for war in 2026, believed there would be no clear winners, even in the scenario of nukes not being involved. Apart from the impact of war, a conflict between China and Taiwan would result in supply chain disruptions, like those during the pandemic. Taiwan is the world’s largest manufacturer of computer chips.
All this suggests that countries in the region should take the idea of an attempt to annex Taiwan by force seriously, prepare for the possibility, but also try to diplomatically deter a conflict from happening.
Domestic politics are a factor in China’s reaction, with President Xi Jinping seeking a third term later this year, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made dangerous and risky scenarios more plausible.
Overall comparisons between Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan are somewhat broad and misleading.
China is heavily invested in playing a leading role in the world as an emerging superpower through political and economic relationships. It prefers to gain influence through
There are other strained stalemates in the region, such as between North and South Korea, and India and Pakistan, that are uneasily managed or contained for now.
trade. It can, at times, as over the military drills or its previous trade disputes with Australia, employ intimidatory tactics and inflammatory rhetoric.
Russia under President Vladimir Putin has a pattern of making up for its declining economic status with actual military aggression, energy blackmail, and other threats.
Unlike Taiwan, Ukraine is a huge country with land borders that allow a flow of political contact and military support from European allies. Its people can find safety in those countries.
Still, the behaviour of the US and its allies towards the Russian invasion — supplying Ukraine with weapons but avoiding tangling with Moscow — seems to be a pointer. Would the US want to directly take on China’s military when it hasn’t wanted to fight Russia over the past six months?
Much has been made of the lessons China may have learned from the early stages of Russia’s invasion.
But Beijing can also learn that being a brutal bully, as the Kremlin is, limits a country’s options. In Russia’s case, opposing countries have made decisions as a consequence of the invasion, such as working on other energy options or abandoning neutrality to join Nato.
The world needs more of the China that has in the past co-operated with the US and EU on climate crisis measures, and wants to compete on developing green energy technology.
New Zealand’s two main parties appear to be on the same page that escalation should be avoided. Diplomacy and encouraging Beijing’s politically pragmatic and economically ambitious side is the way forward on China-Taiwan relations.