Test victory vital for Foster to have future
No matter how grim the circumstances in the past, New Zealand Rugby officials have always kept misgivings about an All Blacks coach private. NZRU chairman Eddie Tonks may have told Laurie Mains, “the shit will hit the fan now”, when he rang him in 1992 to say Mains had the coaching job ahead of John Hart, but in public, Tonks gritted his teeth and kept his feelings to himself.
This time, it’s different. New Zealand Rugby chief executive Mark Robinson’s “unacceptable” comment about the Irish series loss, and his careful phrasing that Ian Foster is “the person to lead the team to South Africa”, must mean that the second test is vital for Foster’s future.
The only fair way would be to decide after the tour to Britain and Japan in October and November. A new coach would then have summer to prepare and a season of Super Rugby to study form.
Can the All Blacks win?
As they did last week, the TAB have the Springboks as hot favourites. I’ve been to two tests at Ellis Park and the All Blacks lost both. With the high altitude starving players of oxygen, and fans so feral, even former Boks captain John Smit says he finds them scary, it’s the worst place in rugby for a last stand.
The All Blacks have a fighting chance. A key decision-maker, firstfive Richie Mo’unga, was a 23-year-old in just his second season of Super Rugby when he steered the Crusaders to victory against the Lions at Ellis Park in 2017 in front of a record crowd of 62,000 people. So he shouldn’t be intimidated by the Johannesburg cauldron. But how well he runs the show will be determined by whether the Boks can bash the All Blacks forwards around.
What happens if the All Blacks win?
It would be extraordinary if Foster didn’t continue to the end of the year.
What happens if they lose?
The most likely scenario is there’s a scramble to find a replacement coach.
Who makes that decision?
The NZR board didn’t get to quiz the leading candidates when they first appointed Foster. But if there’s a change now, you’d hope the people on the board, who in theory are charged with having the final word on the sport, won’t just hand over the responsibility to Robinson, or to an advisory group he picks.
Would Scott Robertson be the first choice?
Looking to anyone else would be unconscionable. He has to be the man for the job.
Would he want to step straight in? Put yourself in his shoes. There are two weeks until the next All Blacks test, against the Pumas in Christchurch. By the time the All Blacks return from South Africa, and get over jetlag, that’s really just 10 or 11 days to get ready for Argentina.
If there is a determination to make a coaching change, the only fair way would be to decide after the tour to Britain and Japan in October and November. A new coach would then have summer to prepare and a season of Super Rugby to study form and make his selection decisions.
Should a new coach choose his own assistants?
Hell, yes. One of the weird quirks of NZR, even into the professional era, had been that the the board rather than the head coach picked the assistants.
That changed forever when a major factor in the selection of Graham Henry ahead of Robbie Deans in 2007 was that Henry had Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen committed to working with him, while Deans was unsure of his coaching staff.
Mike Eagle, who led the NZRU sub-committee that quizzed the candidates, would later tell me: “Here was a group of guys [with Henry], all international coaches, who, yes, had lost at the [2007] World Cup, but still had very good credentials. And over here is Robbie [Deans] and his coaching group, Question Mark and Question Mark.”
If there’s a new coach, he needs to have control over who he works with. And the more time he has to make that decision, the better.