Kingmaker Schmidt saviour for Foster
A week ago, New Zealand thought it was witnessing the greatest coaching catastrophe in All Blacks history.
Now, with Ian Foster effectively endorsed as head coach through to the World Cup against all predictions and seemingly against the weight of evidence, one of the greatest fairytale comebacks could be written.
The greatest redemption story of all may be about to unfold — one more dramatic and unlikely than the fall and rise of Graham Henry between
2004 and 2011.
One more dramatic than the incredible resurrection of South Africa under Rassie Erasmus, who took a team that had fallen to a record
57-0 defeat to the All Blacks, and 18 months later, turned them into world champions.
No one should be in any doubt that this time last week, Foster had no escape route. Too many losses had been posted, too many uncertain performances delivered.
The All Blacks have had bad patches but nothing in the modern era as bad as between late October
2021 and mid-August 2022.
It seemed impossible to believe Foster could survive through to the World Cup.
It may look like what saved him from the axe was the way the All Blacks fought back in the final
12 minutes to win at Ellis Park.
The depth of their resilience was impressive and commitment to the cause undeniable, but it would be wrong to believe the New Zealand Rugby board are effectively gambling the All Blacks’ World Cup hopes on those 12 minutes — hoping they, and not the three defeats that proceeded victory at Ellis Park, are the window to the soul of Foster’s All Blacks.
What convinced them to stick with Foster is the obvious impact Jason Ryan has made as forwards coach since he arrived a month ago but, more significantly, the prospect of having Joe Schmidt as attack coach.
Schmidt is the kingmaker, the transformational element. He brings an attention to detail that has been missing in the set-up and so, too, will he bring a harder edge — a lower tolerance for standards that don’t meet expectation.
The feedback from the players these past two years has been consistent. They feel the environment has been too comfortable, missing the sort of tension high-performance teams need to thrive.
The influence of Schmidt persuaded the board to stick with Foster.
The World Cup draw is set up next year to pit the All Blacks against France and Italy in pool play and possibly Ireland and England in the knockout rounds if they progress.
Schmidt spent seven years coaching Ireland in the Six Nations and he knows how to build game plans to bring down France and England. He also knows inside secrets about Ireland, and all this will be invaluable next year.
And this is why the next year is going to be so fascinating, because it’s possible now to see Foster completing his redemption story by winning the World Cup.
The board have taken a risk in retaining him but it is calculated and justified. People may not see that immediately because the process in getting to this point has been so clumsy and ham-fisted, but the All Blacks can win the World Cup if Foster is flexible and open-minded.
And that means they must evolve, adapt and turn up in France posing entirely different questions to the ones they have in the past 12 months.
They have to refresh their personnel, add some younger players and think more about revolution than evolution.
It’s not that his All Blacks necessarily need a radical cleanout of playing personnel but there does need to be greater internal pressure applied on the senior players to hold their places.
The arrival of Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell and even Tyrel Lomax has changed the dynamic of the front row and that’s what fresh faces do — they can add energy, bring a sense of rejuvenation, and put older players on notice that their standards have to lift.
There needs to be an edge, with no one, not even Sam Cane, certain whether he’ll play each week and the players have to believe that the boss is prepared to drop the biggest names if they underperform.
That ruthlessness hasn’t been evident in Foster’s tenure to date. But perhaps now, having survived against the odds and finally having gained the public backing of his chief executive and board, he’ll feel more like a head coach in charge rather than one hanging on.
And with Schmidt and Ryan at his side, he’ll have two strong voices challenging his decisions, asking pertinent questions, and bringing greater dynamism and clarity to the game plan and selection.
Redemption is certainly possible. This coaching team could do the unthinkable and lead the All Blacks to a World Cup title in 2023 but there is no doubt the NZR board have taken a leap of faith in even letting them try.