Rocky road to reach next Government
Old two-party system is creaking as the smaller players’ ratings rise
Listen hard and you might just hear a strange splintering noise coming from the political domain. It is the sound of the Labour-National duopoly crumbling.
For now, the minor parties’ bloc is in the ascendancy, and who’s to say that won’t continue to be the case through to the 2023 election.
If so, the formation of the next Government — whether it be Labour or National in the driver’s seat — could be a tortuous exercise. More on that in a moment.
MMP’s promise of a more representative Parliament has largely come to pass. Ma¯ori MPs have been elected in numbers more proportionate to the Ma¯ori population. We have more women, Pasifika and Asian members, and our first African-born MP.
And minor political parties, at least initially, grew their collective vote share, giving them greater numbers in the House of Representatives.
Labour and National, the Big Two, no longer had it all their own way. In two of the first three MMP elections, beginning in 1996, they jointly secured only 62 per cent of party votes.
But in 2005 the two-party dominance returned as they won 80 per cent of party votes, and then 79 per cent in 2008. Their combined tally eased a little in the next two elections, but surged again to 81.3 per cent in 2017. At the last election it was 75.6 per cent, fuelled by Labour’s extraordinary result.
Now the splintering is back. It sees the minors, especially the Act Party and the Greens — both of whom hover around the 10 per cent mark — pegging back the duopoly.
In a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll this week, the Labour-National share was 69.5 per cent. Other recent polls have put the majors’ share as low as 65 per cent.
It is a far cry from the 81.3 per cent peak of five years ago. So why are voters fleeing into the arms of the minors?
The reasons behind Labour’s slump in support since 2020 have been well documented: overexposure; the cost of living crisis; fatigue with pandemic restrictions; the perceived slowness of reopening borders; and difficulties with major reforms, particularly Three Waters. There has been plenty to dislike, though Jacinda Ardern’s star still shines, if less brightly.
And National is no longer capitalising like it did when Christopher Luxon took over. Its poll ratings soared but are now mired in the 30s, well short of the mid- to late40s that marked the Key-English years. The party struggles to land any damaging blows on Labour and its Uffindell moment shows it still has crippling systemic problems to resolve.
Luxon’s personal support has either stalled or begun to slide backwards, his howlers and hamhandedness raising doubts about his suitability to lead a government. He is simply not in Ardern’s league.
Which brings us back to the minors and their election-year prospects.
The Greens will continue to exploit the frustration over slow progress on climate action. There is growing disillusionment, particularly among millennials, over the major parties’ failure to commit to urgent action.
Disregard the messy plot against co-leader James Shaw. It will have been forgotten by the time Election 2023 rolls around. The Greens are the standard-bearer for net zero ambitions and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see their vote reach the 12-15 per cent range.
The Australian election in May should serve as a portent. The success in once rock-solid Liberal seats of independent “teal” candidates — fiscally conservative but with strong green credentials — created shockwaves across the Tasman. The Australian Greens also got their bestever vote as voters expressed their dismay over climate dithering.
The Act Party has continued to build on the 7.6 per cent share it won in 2020, with recent surveys scoring it as high as 11 per cent. David Seymour’s dog-whistles on race and his offensive against gangs and welfarism clearly strike a chord.
The party would appear to be locked in a zero-sum game with National, as its gains are coming mainly at National’s expense. But at its current support levels Act would have plenty of leverage in any postelection talks with National.
Te Pāti Māori will be another to watch. Its polling numbers are modest, but it’ll be confident of chiselling another Ma¯ori electorate or two away from Labour, and with an improved share of the party vote, could return to the next Parliament with three or four MPs.
Then there is New Zealand First and Winston Peters. The veteran contrarian looks set to saddle up for one more political rodeo. He’ll cast himself as the true centre option and look to latch on to an issue that is irritating middle New Zealand — Shane Jones gave a pointer with a recent opinion piece flaying supermarkets.
Others are lurking on the margins. The Opportunities Party (Top), for instance, is setting out its 2023 goals, and then there are the likes of Brian Tamaki and his Freedom & Rights Coalition, railing against the “tyranny” of Wellington. His followers will most likely just add to the pile of wasted votes.
So it will come down to postelection negotiations.
National would find Act a handful. Seymour is fond of setting bottom lines, his most strident being a referendum on co-governance. Abolishing a public holiday to offset the Matariki holiday is another. Luxon, lacking any experience in playing post-election hardball, might be overwhelmed by it all.
On the centre-left, Labour and the Greens know the drills of Government formation, having been there before. But the recent grassroots revolt in the Greens’ ranks suggests it could be a rockier road next time.
The trickier proposition for Labour would be folding in Te Pāti Māori, should that be required for the centre-left to govern. What if TPM made bottom lines out of removing GST on kai, the abolition of the prison system or the creation of a Māori Education Authority? Don’t expect that negotiation to be completed in good time.
Then there’s the possibility that Peters makes it over the line, and again finds himself in the role of kingmaker.
Now there’s a scenario that doesn’t bear thinking about.
The Greens are the standard-bearer for net zero ambitions and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see their vote reach the 12-15 per cent range.