Six months to hammer out a stalemate

The six-month milestone for the war in Ukraine had a sombre impact in New Zealand this week with the news of the death of a Kiwi soldier in the conflict.

Dominic Abelen was on leave without pay from the NZ Defence Force and was fighting in Ukraine’s foreign legion.

Abelen, 30, had served in the army for 10 years, and was among thousands of international volunteers trying to help Ukraine after the country was invaded by Russia on February 24.

New Zealand has been involved in training Ukrainian soldiers in Britain. Abelen was not on active duty and was in Ukraine for his own reasons.

The Herald reported that Abelen was part of an operation at the frontline in the east of Ukraine which attempted the re-taking of a trench network.

Media reports from Ukraine say the Russians are literally digging in for the coming winter — creating trenches to be tougher targets for drones and missiles across the

2400km frontline. Thursday marked not just six months since the war started but also

31 years since Ukraine gained its independence.

On the battlefield, the war has settled into a hard stalemate with neither side interested in talks for an exit, despite an estimated 25,000 to

30,000 military deaths so far. Russia wants to hold on to the territorial gains it has and Ukraine is holding on to the goal of pushing its neighbour from its land altogether.

Russia is unable to make territorial progress but can still launch damaging artillery and missile attacks. Ukraine is now getting just enough Western weapons — including Himars missile systems since early July — to hold its own and cause more problems for its opponent.

Over the past six months, Russia has lost a large area of land it initially gained in northeast Ukraine after the February invasion. It still retains a fat buffer zone across the southeast — about 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory. Maps from the Institute for the Study of War think-tank show there has been little territorial change since April.

Crucially, Ukraine managed to prevent the takeover of Kyiv and the Government at the start. Kharkiv in the north was also saved, but Russia grabbed Kherson and destroyed Mariupol in the south.

Moscow set off war-crime probes as atrocities were uncovered when the military pulled back to regroup in the east.

Up until the past month, Russia appeared to be putting Ukrainian forces under major pressure in the Donbas eastern region with ground battles, but that offensive has stalled.

Ukraine has tried to disrupt Russian supplies and destroy equipment and weapons. The Himars system means it can strike ammunition dumps, infrastructure and Russian command posts. Kyiv has also struck targets in Russian-held territory, including in the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

As long as Western nations maintain support for Ukraine, it’s a matter of which side can keep it going the longest — at great cost both in lives lost and economic pain..

Most of Ukraine and the capital remain firmly in the Government’s control, although not out of danger. On Thursday, as Ukraine marked its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, a Russian strike on a railway station killed 25 and wounded 50 in Chaplyne, 145km west of Donetsk.

The United Nations estimates that at least 5600 civilians have died.

As long as Western nations maintain support for Ukraine, it’s a matter of which side can keep it going the longest — at great cost both in lives lost and economic pain.

Millions of Ukrainians remain displaced and an agreement to ship out Ukrainian grain is fragile.

While the conflict drifts, fears of a catastrophe have grown with shelling around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The US announced more military aid on Independence Day: US$3 billion worth, including anti-aircraft missiles and artillery.

However, Europe is heading towards winter and Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to turn up the heat on energy blackmail. Several countries including Poland, the Netherlands, Latvia, Finland and Denmark have had gas supplies cut off.

Ukraine has signalled an operation to regain Kherson but it is yet to begin.

In this stalemate, neither side has an advantage to gain the upper hand. They both would need to commit more weapons and fighters to the war, to tilt the balance. Hence, Putin ordered up 137,000 more Russian troops yesterday.

A brutal winter campaign looms.