Has Russia lost the war in Ukraine?

The sight of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy singing the national anthem as the flag was raised in the recaptured northern city of Izium this week was more than symbolic.

The act was a firm “boots on the ground” claim to the territory after invading Russian forces had been routed in the strategic Khakiv region.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has conceded having to answer “questions and concern” from Chinese Premier Xi Jinping at their first face-to-face meeting since the war.

But emerging comment around the tide turning against Russia should be greeted with a Black Sea grain of salt for several reasons.

The White House has noted the sense of momentum by Ukrainian forces against Russia but cautions that the ongoing war in Ukraine remains “unpredictable”.

John Kirby, the Co-ordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council says the White House has been watching the apparent shift “very closely”.

“The events in the north are more dramatic than what we’ve seen in the south. I would let President Volodymyr Zelenskyy determine and decide whether he feels militarily they’ve reached a turning point. But clearly, at least in the Donbas, there’s a sense of momentum here.”

Only three months ago, Ukraine was said to be struggling to avoid complete collapse. Russia was picking off regional targets as Western allies seemed more intent on grappling with rising fuel prices and rampant inflation.

The tilting advantage is another episode in an unedifying “special operation” for Putin. Most commentators predicted Russian forces would quickly overrun the Ukraine capital soon after the February 24 incursion. Russian troops were said to be carrying dress uniforms for the anticipated “liberation” parades.

Satellite images soon showed queues of Russian tanks, apparently stalled after fuel supplies failed to keep up with demand. It is clear logistical and command failures by Russian military leaders have thwarted Putin’s ambition to reunify the Russian empire.

Six months into the conflict however and after heavy bombardment of strategic cities, Russians occupied large swathes of the north, east, and south of Ukraine.

Some US analysts believe the latest change in Ukrainian fortunes came with the deployment of a standard — and hitherto largely-unnoticed — part of the American military arsenal for decades: High mobility artillery rocket systems, known as Himars.

Himars fire a 90kg warhead up to 80km and hit within 3m of an intended target, and the weapon has near eliminated Russia’s troop numbers advantage.

Since June, the US has shipped Ukraine 16 Himars launchers and thousands of rockets, which defence officials say the Ukrainians have used

Emerging comment around the tide turning against Russia should be greeted with a Black Sea grain of salt for several reasons.

to attack more than 350 Russian command posts, ammo dumps, supply depots, and other high-value targets far back from the front lines.

Having defused Russia’s organised offence, Ukraine launched a lightning counterattack on August 29, targeting Russian troops in and around the southern port city of Kherson. Simultaneously, Ukranian troops pressed into the northern city of Kharkiv and Russian resolve there appears to have disintegrated.

As witnessed after the tank advance was stalled by fuel supplies, the Russian war machine can readily shake setbacks off. As an apparent response to the ceremony at Izium, Russian missiles destroyed a reservoir dam near the southern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown. But this is largely being read as retribution rather than any renewed push.

After in practicality, losing the war for six months, Ukraine hopes will be ascendant and Putin will be mindful of that. One decision for Moscow now is whether to continue to hold the southern city of Kherson as Ukraine has been targeting supply bridges across the Dnieper River, also the sole route of any potential Russia tactical withdrawal.

Compared to the scale of Russian occupation, the retaken area around Kharkiv isn’t massive, about half the size of Wales. But the blow to Russian morale could be. That is why Zelenskyy was keen to have his boots in the city square when the Ukrainian flag was hoisted and Shche ne vmerla Ukrainy was sung.

The title translates as “Ukraine has not yet perished”.