Land grab gives Putin some time
Annexation avoids humbling defeat for Russian leader
In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the annexation of Crimea into law. It was a moment of Russian triumph: He had pulled off an almost universally popular operation, at no military cost, and presented Ukraine and the world with a fait accompli no one dared challenge.
Never has a shorter or more victorious war been fought.
This time, the circumstances could not be more different.
Putin was due to hold a signing ceremony last night which will see Russia formally annex the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine’s east, and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south.
The move comes after rushed referendums were held in the regions last week, with the overwhelming majority of votes supporting annexation.
So what is the game? For one thing, it is a statement of intent and commitment.
Russia’s constitution was amended in 2020 to prevent Putin — or any subsequent President — from ceding territory once acquired. Which means even a partial withdrawal as part of a peace deal is impossible.
There is also marginal military utility — he will be able to conscript Ukrainian men, providing muchneeded cannon fodder for his hollowed-out army.
But most significant is the barely veiled nuclear threat.
If Putin believes it is in his interests, and that he can get away with it, he may well be tempted to use atomic weapons.
That said, the immediate goal is probably not to provide a legal excuse to drop a bomb; it is to scare Ukraine’s Western partners enough to force Kyiv into a “ceasefire” to allow “talks”.
In practice, that would mean freezing the war along the present line of contact and leaving Russia in control of large swathes of southeastern Ukraine, including the strategically important land bridge to Crimea.
This would buy Putin precious breathing space.
The world would heave a sigh of relief and settle for a new Cyprus or Korean peninsula — an imperfect but sustainable peace that could last decades.
He would not have won, but he would have avoided a humiliating defeat.
In reality, Ukrainians believe that such a peace would last only until Russia had rearmed, retrained and was ready to march on Kyiv once again.
That is why they will ignore the ceremony in Moscow, and keep fighting as hard as they can to take back their land.
After all, they are winning at the moment.