Late-counted votes will decide midterm races

A key question hangs over the more than 600,000 ballots left to be tallied in Arizona: Do they look like the state’s late-counted 2020 ballots that overwhelmingly went to Republicans, or break down more like the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won most of them?

The answer will determine who wins extremely tight races for the US Senate and House, as well as governor, secretary of state and attorney-general. At stake are control of Congress and the rules for the 2024 presidential election in a crucial battleground state.

The races remained too early to call two days after the midterm election, with about a quarter of the ballots still left to count.

Former President Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election have rejigged voting patterns across the country and especially in Arizona, which has played a starring role in conspiracy theories suggesting the outcome was tainted.

That makes it even more complicated for news organisations to declare winners because historical data doesn’t necessarily apply.

After opening big leads on election night, when only mail ballots returned early were reported, Democrats saw their margins dwindle as more Republican ballots were counted. Democratic leads improved yesterday in the races for Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney-general when Pima County, which includes left-leaning Tucson, reported new results.

It could take several days before it’s clear who won some of the closer contests, as was the case in the 2018 and 2020 elections.