Trudeau’s lesson in modern geopolitics
Muted support for Canada shows power India holds over allies
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood up in Parliament and said India may have been involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen, the muted international response offered a lesson in modern geopolitics.
India, it seems, may be too powerful to alienate.
None of Canada’s most important allies — not the US, Britain, Australia or New Zealand, all knitted tightly together in the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance — echoed Trudeau’s allegations.
They’ve declared their concern. They’ve urged full investigations. But none have stepped up to condemn India for its alleged involvement in the June slaying on Canadian soil of a Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Why?
Mainly there’s China, and the priority among the allies to bolster ties with India as a counterweight to Beijing’s rising power and assertiveness.
But it’s more than that. Modern India has a fast-growing economy that many analysts believe will overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest by 2030.
It has become a major power in world affairs, with more than 1.4 billion people and one of the world’s largest militaries.
All that makes it hard for Canada’s main allies — which are also some of India’s main partners — to loudly speak out.
“I think Australia, US and UK did about what was expected,” said Janice Stein, a political scientist at the Munk School of Global Affairs in Toronto.
Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, agreed: “As long as the West needs India to counter China, it is likely to look away.”
On Monday, Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the killing outside Vancouver by masked gunmen of 45-year-old Nijjar, who had been wanted by India for years. Canada also expelled an Indian diplomat.
A day later — and after India ramped up the confrontation by itself expelling a top Canadian diplomat — Trudeau toned down the rhetoric, telling reporters that Canada was “not looking to provoke or escalate.”
“PM tempers criticism as allies decline to condemn India over slain Sikh leader,” read the front-page headline Wednesday in Canada’s The Globe and Mail newspaper.
The Government’s allegations are particularly awkward now for the UK, which is seeking a free trade deal with India.
“These are serious allegations. It is right that the Canadian authorities should be looking into them,” said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman, Max Blain.
But he made clear that the killing would not come up in the trade talks, saying “these are negotiations about a trade deal and we are not looking to conflate with other issues.”
Trudeau discussed the slaying with Sunak and US President Joe Biden in recent weeks, according to Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly.
If the allies’ responses were muted, Joly’s office and the White House denied news reports that Canada, in the days before Trudeau made his allegations, had lobbied the US and other major allies to condemn the killing.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said any reports that the US had rebuffed Canada were “just flatly false”.
“We were deeply concerned by these allegations Prime Minister Trudeau laid forward and remain in regular contact with our Canadian partners,” Kirby said
He added, however, that the US relationship with India “remains vitally important, not only for the South Asia region but of course for the Indo Pacific”.
Still, the Biden administration seems to be offering more moral support than anything substantive. It might want to let things play out as a bilateral issue between Ottawa and New Delhi.
“It’s embarrassing” to Washington, said Robert Bothwell, a historian and professor at the University of Toronto. But “the US has larger interests”.
If Trudeau’s accusations are correct, he said, it also shows that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Government is not “restrained by an innate sense of rule of law or a commitment to democracy”.
“This is the same kind of thing that Putin does,” he said, referring to enemies of Russian President Vladimir Putin who have been killed in Russia and abroad.
Nijjar, who was was born in India and had worked for years as a plumber in Canada, was killed in the parking lot of a Sikh temple in Surrey, a suburb of Vancouver. He was wanted by Indian authorities, who had long said he had links to separatist terrorists seeking the creation of an independent Sikh nation inside India.
While Nijjar advocated for a Sikh homeland, he denied allegations he had any ties to terrorism.
Canada has yet to provide any evidence of India’s involvement in the killing. But a US official said that Trudeau’s willingness to speak out was taken by the White House as an indication of the Canadian leader’s certainty about what had been found. The official, who was not authorised to comment publicly, spoke on condition of anonymity.
Canada is one of the few countries in the world that unabashedly speaks out in defence of human rights and the international rule of law. It also has few qualms about taking on major powers.
In 2018, for example, ChinaCanada relations nosedived after China detained former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and Canadian entrepreneur Michael Spavor.
Those arrests came shortly after Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and the daughter of the company’s founder. Canada made the arrest at the behest of US authorities who accused Meng of fraud.
Also in 2018, the Saudi Government expelled Canada’s ambassador to the kingdom and withdrew its own ambassador after Canada’s foreign ministry tweeted support for an arrested Saudi activist.
Trudeau also clashed with former US President Donald Trump, who vowed to make Canada pay after Trudeau said he wouldn’t be pushed around in trade talks with the US.
Now the stakes are higher, and it’s unclear who Canada can count on for full-throated support.
“Is Canada alone?” asked Bothwell. “That is obviously a worry because throughout Canada’s existence it has relied on the protection of first the British and then the Americans.”