Prepare for gusts —anda soaking

Strong winds and thunderstorms are set to lash the country today.

A strong wind watch is already in place for Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel until midnight tonight, and parts of Auckland could get gusts of up to 100km/h.

Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency said speeds limits may be reduced on Auckland’s Harbour Bridge and some lanes may close. Drivers of high-sided vehicles and motorcyclists are advised to avoid the Auckland Harbour Bridge and use the western ring route on state highways 16 and 18.

For the rest of the North Island, it is going to be a wintry day with strong winds expected, MetService’s Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said.

MetService has also issued heavy swell warnings for the bottom of the North Island, where rough sea conditions may be seen around the coastline.

South Island residents can expect similar conditions, with those in the deepest south forecast to see the worst.

In the west, thunderstorms are possible for Buller and Westland, while Nelson may see some isolated showers.

For the rest of the island, there could be some snow falls to the east.

Road snowfall warnings are in place for the North Island’s Desert Rd and for Milford Rd and Crown Range Rd in the South Island.

The wintry conditions are expected to ease by this evening and clearer conditions are expected for most of the country tomorrow.

“Temperatures will also start to increase on Sunday, especially in the east and towards Wellington that will start to go back into the mid teens,” Mahgabutlane said.

Despite the miserable weekend outlook, Niwa expects unseasonably warm weather followed by sharp, cool southerly winds between now and December.

There’s a higher chance rainfall will be lower than normal for many regions and wind will be stronger.

Fire and Emergency NZ (Fenz) national wildfire manager Tim Mitchell said it is time to prepare for the fire season by “clearing vegetation around structures, managing water supplies and forming a plan”.

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said: “El Nino is finally here. We’ve been talking about it for a long time.”

Projections show it could be one of “the stronger El Nino events in the last couple of decades”. El Nio would “bring some really windy conditions”.

More westerly winds from this pressure pattern will contribute to “prolonged dry spells” about the east and north of both islands.

The risk of marine heatwaves, “like those that have occurred in recent years”, however, was low, Niwa said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, which leads to extremely dry conditions in Australia, will also be in play.

It threw parts of the North Island into a severe drought in 2019.

“This is a reason to be concerned,” Brandolino said, “now we have at least a strong El Nino in conjunction with [the Indian Ocean Dipole].”

Both Bradolino and Noll said parts of the country could be above 30C next week.

“That’s early,” Noll said, “Last year we didn’t hit 30C until November. It’s certainly ahead of schedule.”

Bradolino said the early heat was “a nice example” of what New Zealand could see over the next two to three months.

Fenz’s Mitchell said the wildfire risk was slightly above normal along the east coasts of both islands — where rainfall was likely to be lower, too — and slightly below normal where rainfall rates were projected to be higher than usual at the bottom and west of the South.