Ascending Azzurri can give ABs scare
The All Blacks take on Italy in a must-win clash today — but do they have anything to fear? Luke Kirkness investigates
Italy’s ascent
Italy’s recent track record reveals a team on the rise. Under the guidance of former All Black Kieran Crowley, the Italians have undergone a transformation. Their fitness, discipline, set piece and threats in the backline have all evolved, making them a competitive force.
After a series of defeats, they now boast a four-game winning streak, their longest in nearly three decades. Notably, they upset former rugby giants Australia in November, ending
49 years of hurt.
Earlier this year, they gave France a major scare before going down 29-17. Italy fought back from 19-6 down to lead for the first time in the match at
24-22 with less than a quarter to go. In their last pool match against Uruguay, Italy rebounded from a
10-point halftime deficit to blow the South Americans away 38-17.
Italy will be hungry to defeat the All Blacks. They have never missed a World Cup but they’ve never made it out of the group stages either. At each of the past five tournaments, Italy has finished third place in their group.
The teams
Comparing the squads, the All Blacks are the strongest on paper. The New Zealanders have made significant changes to the team that played Namibia, especially in the backline.
Key players such as Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan are returning to the starting lineup. Sam Whitelock has been named on the bench and if he gets on the field, will become the most-capped All-Black.
On the other side, Crowley has made some strategic changes with notable players such as Dino Lamb and Luca Morisi stepping up.
Tommaso Allan returns to fullback after starting at first-five last week, while Paolo Garbisi moves from midfield to first five. Allan has not missed a shot at goal at RWC 2023, kicking all 13 attempts, and requires five more points to surpass Diego Dominguez as Italy’s all-time leading Rugby World Cup point-scorer.
No player in the match-day team has scored a try against the All Blacks. The last Azzurri player to cross New Zealand’s goal-line was Tommaso Boni in 2016.
Who is Kieran Crowley?
Crowley played for the All Blacks when they won the first Rugby World Cup in 1987 and has spent the last 14 years coaching abroad — moving to Italy after leading the Canadian national team for seven years. His Taranaki (Kaponga) roots remain prevalent, though. He played 19 tests among his 35 matches for the All Blacks from 1983 to 1991.
Crowley’s arrival in Italy two years ago altered their approach by overhauling Italy’s conservative mindset to create a vastly different identity.
He assumed charge when Italy was at a low ebb, with a 36-test losing run in the Six Nations. After each defeat, the clamour of criticism grew. Italy broke their horror streak by stunning Wales in Cardiff last year. They proved that was no fluke, too, with their first win against the Wallabies last November, and they then put 49 points on Samoa the following week.
Through innovation and an enterprising style based on using the middle of the field with a 2-4-2 pod system, having players in motion and keeping the ball alive, which is complemented by strong loose forwards Lorenzo Cannone and Michele Lamaro, Italy pushed Ireland and France — the latter to the brink — in this year’s Six Nations.
Earlier this week, Crowley promised a courageous, attackminded attitude from his Italian side as they plot their shot at history in Lyon. The points table
A win for the All Blacks would propel them forward, potentially earning them a crucial bonus point. Meanwhile, Italy aim to not only secure a victory but also accumulate points for a significant advantage. The scenario sets the stage for a dynamic encounter.
France top Pool A on 13 points including one bonus point, with Italy sitting second on 10 with two bonus points, and New Zealand third on five points.
In the World Cup, four points are awarded for a win, two points for a draw, a try bonus is awarded to teams who score four or more tries in a match, and a losing bonus point is awarded to teams who lose a match by seven or fewer points.
The verdict
While an upset by Italy is not implausible considering their recent form and determination, in reality, the likely winners are the All Blacks.
Despite some inconsistency in recent years, the All Blacks remain a rugby powerhouse. The clash will showcase their dominance, securing a victory and the needed bonus point.
Worried? Not really. The All Blacks are poised for a resounding victory.