Why Labour lost the election and what’s next
Andrew Little reflects on his exit, and his party’s chances of avoiding implosion, with Claire Trevett
Andrew Little says he is optimistic Labour will not go through the same spiral of instability, factions and leadership changes in its looming time in Opposition as it did between
2008 and 2017.
Little — a minister for the past six years and former leader of the party — announced he was leaving politics on Tuesday, saying he wanted to make room for a newer MP to hone their skills to be ready for a future government.
Labour now is still digesting the
2023 result — not much better than the 2014 result — and it is almost inevitable there will be a reckoning for it.
However, in an exit interview with the Weekend Herald, Little says he is hopeful it will not spark the same cycle as 2008-2017.
Little points to the big intakes of new MPs in the 2017 and 2020 election, many of whom make up its current caucus.
“We’ve had nine years of a much more disciplined caucus, and there has been a huge injection of new blood and that’s now moving its way through. There is a much stronger culture of discipline.
“People understand the party has to be strong and the caucus has to be strong. So I don’t foresee the same ups and downs that we saw some years ago.”
A former party president himself, he says the party is also on a good footing. There will be an election review, as there always is. “But I think the party is well poised to get itself ready, both for Opposition, and to fight hard in the next election campaign.”
Little pulled together the caucus the last time it was in Opposition, taking over as leader after six years of troubles and a polling collapse to 26 per cent in the 2014 election.
Little (and the realisation of caucus that it was doomed to lose again if it did not buck up its act) restored discipline and more unity.
It meant the caucus was in a good shape by the time Little stood down in 2017, saying he took responsibility for Labour’s low polling, and handing the reins to Jacinda Ardern.
It was a remarkable move in New Zealand politics and did enough to deliver the party the chance to get into Government in 2017.
Asked if he ever had any pangs about that decision, he says it was “a clinical decision”.
“We’ve all got egos and you need ego, you need strong egos in this place. But you’ve also got to have selfawareness and you’ve got to understand what you’re there for. I’m not there for me.
“Obviously you don’t step up as leader of the party without also wanting to be Prime Minister, because that’s what you’re there for. But, again, I was capable of making a quite clinical decision which was that this was not working for the party, and if we want to be in a position to form a Government then I have to step out of the way.”
His exit now follows a big defeat for Labour, which saw its vote collapse from 50 per cent to around 28 per cent since 2020, losing about 30 seats in the process.
Little puts that election result down to three things: Losing Auckland, losing on crime and losing public confidence because of a raft of ministers coming a cropper over the past year.
“Auckland was the region that had it toughest in the Covid response . . . there was extreme frustration. I think we lost Auckland a couple of years ago.”
He said crime issues — especially retail crime — then reflected badly on the Government. “And I think it was a downward spiral from then.
“It was a second-term Government when other things went wrong and ministers had to step out of Cabinet. That undermines public confidence in the Government of the day .”
Asked about Ardern’s decision to step down in January, Little said it was a surprise — but also not surprising.
“2022 was a really tough year. And I could see by the end of the last year she was really drawing from the bottom of the well to get to the end of the year.”
He had thought she would refresh over summer, as Ardern herself had hoped. “But she didn’t.”
He said had Labour made it back into Government, he would have stayed a further term. However, he had only ever intended to do four or five terms as an MP.
Asked what he will miss, he said it has been a privilege, but also constant pressure. He’s looking forward to having Sundays back.
Asked about speculation he might be keen on the Council of Trade Unions as it gears up to fight the National Party’s planned changes to industrial relations law — including scrapping Fair Pay Agreements and restoring 90-day trials, he says he thinks the union movement needs “a bit of refresh and renewal”.
“I don’t represent refresh and renewal.”
He’s expecting to move back into the legal profession, saying he enjoyed litigation.
He was given the nickname “Angry Andy” by former PM Sir John Key for his impassioned speaking in Parliament — and occasionally to the media.
Little has a wry sense of humour as well. He says there was never an Angry Andy. “He’s been forthright and determined and passionate Andrew.”
Little has had a substantial and varied ministerial career, making significant reforms in most portfolios he has held. He said he had a close relationship with Ardern, and she trusted him to deal with his portfolios: “so I got stuck in”.
In Justice, he set up the Criminal Cases Review Commission to assess possible miscarriages of justice.
He kept up the pace of Treaty settlements: Without quite managing to get Nga¯puhi back to the table. He loved that portfolio.
In Health, it was Little who did the groundwork on the major reforms of scrapping the district health boards for the more centralised management approach of Health NZ — Te Whatu Ora and the Ma¯ori Health Authority. It delivered tense and prolonged negotiations with nurses and medical workers — and also the worst of his times — that long winter of 2022 when the health system was under immense strain from Covid-19 and influenza.
His wry humour appears again when he deadpans that he was “devastated to leave health behind, it’s such an enjoyable portfolio”.
In Defence — “interesting, a very special portfolio” — he moved quickly to get defence personnel a pay rise.
The Pike River families want to have a beer with him for his work in reopening the mine to the drift.
Little says he can’t pick one that he savours above the others.
“You see things that need to be done, you get on and do it. Whatever I do I want it to be purposeful and I want to have something to show for it at the end. I’m not a committeesitter.”
It had not all been easy: he had a number of run-ins with NZ First in 2017-2020, including over the threestrikes law and abortion reform.
He’s still enough of a politician to get in one last jab at those old foes: “I’m a long-term kind of guy. I wanted to do the stuff that lays foundations and builds that better future. Unlike NZ First, which is constantly fighting for a better yesterday.”